This week, the second-quarter earnings parade starts to really get rolling, and all the top Wall Street firms that we cover are starting to handicap who they think will do well and who they think are at risk. In a new report from Cowen, the firm’s Aerospace and Defense team likes four stocks into the second-quarter earnings prints.

With the economy both in the United States and around the world slowly but surely picking up, the Cowen team is focused on four companies that they feel can not only top current estimates, but that have solid business traction for the remainder of 2015. All four companies are rated Outperform, and they are the top commercial picks.

Boeing

The Cowen analysts are well ahead of other Wall Street estimates for second-quarter earnings. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has been on a downward trend since February and may be offering investors a very solid entry point. The company and its subsidiaries design, develop, manufacture, sell, service and support commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems and services worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support and Boeing Capital.

The Cowen team sees strong commercial and military deliveries in the quarter. The also feel that C-17 and 787 orders will help drive earnings for the company. The analysts are at $2.17 per share, versus Wall Street’s $2.09 estimate. They also increase the full-year free cash flow number higher by $900 million to $7.4 billion. There is also a solid chance that the aircraft giant can beat full-year numbers.

Boeing shareholders are paid a solid 2.52% dividend, The Cowen price target for the stock is $175, and the Thomson/First consensus price target is $163. Shares closed Friday at $144.48. Boeing reports July 22.

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This company has the benefit of some nice currency tailwinds to help increase earnings. Embraer S.A. (NYSE: ERJ) is a leader in the aerospace and defense industry of Latin America. Embraer Defense & Security offers a complete line of integrated solutions such as C4I (Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence Center) applications, leading edge technologies in the production of radars, advanced information and communication systems, integrated systems for border monitoring and surveillance, as well as military and government transportation aircraft. With a growing presence on the global market, Embraer Defense & Security products are present in more than 60 countries.

The Cowen team points to the positive currency trends, along with a seasonal business jet and regional jet deliveries. They also note that the company had 102 orders in the quarter, and the regional jet book-to-bill number was near 3.8 times, while the business jet book-to-bill was right at 1.0 times. The improving American economy looks to be helping the company.

Embraer investors are paid a tiny 0.1% dividend. The $42 Cowen price target is higher than the consensus target of $36.78. Shares closed on Friday at $29.75. The company’s report date was not listed.

Spirit AeroSystems

The Cowen team is above Wall Street EPS estimates here too. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPR) is one of the world’s largest non-OEM designers and manufacturers of aerostructures for commercial aircraft. Spirit’s core products include fuselages, pylons, nacelles and wing components. Additionally, Spirit provides aftermarket customer support services, including spare parts, maintenance/repair/overhaul, and fleet support services in North America, Europe and Asia. Spirit Europe produces wing components for a host of customers, including Airbus.

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The key point that the Cowen team makes is that the company has delivered earnings beats in the past five quarters that averaged 25%, which could be huge for investors wanting to put on a trade in front of the earnings report.

The Cowen price target is posted at $67, and the consensus target is much lower at $58.86. The stock closed on Friday at $55.13. Spirit is expected to report between July 30 and August 3.

Textron

This is yet another top stock to buy in which the Cowen numbers are higher than the consensus estimates. Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT) is a multi-industry company that leverages its global network of aircraft, defense, industrial and finance businesses to provide customers with innovative solutions and services. Textron is known around the world for its powerful brands such as Bell Helicopter, Cessna, Beechcraft, Hawker, Jacobsen, Kautex, Lycoming, E-Z-GO, Greenlee and Textron Systems.

The company was one of the final two in the running for Sikorsky, but the Cowen team concedes Lockheed had much more firepower. The analysts are bullish on the quarter and have an EPS estimate of $0.64, versus the street estimate of $0.58.

Textron investors are paid a small 0.2% dividend. The Cowen price target is $56, and the consensus target is set at $50.75. The stock closed Friday at $43.68. Textron is scheduled to report on July 28.

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All these stocks are expected to report a good quarter, and all make very good sense in growth portfolios with a degree of risk tolerance.

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