Now that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has set new 52-week highs on consecutive days, thanks to a better-than-expected earnings report, several analysts have weighed in on the company’s performance for the coming year. Analysts are split, with some seeing the stock as a Buy and others maintaining a Sell rating, though all seem to agree that a higher price target is called for.
In Boeing’s favor is the firm’s boost to its cash flow forecast for 2017. The company forecast 2017 cash flow at $10.75 billion, up $500 million compared with 2016’s total. Boeing has been quite successful in focusing attention on cash flow as a primary metric for measuring its performance and that effort is paying off.
The downside case is based on declining orders and a concomitant decline in deliveries. Boeing delivered 748 commercial jets in 2016 and forecasts deliveries of 760 to 765 for 2017, roughly equal to the 762 planes it delivered in 2015.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg is also upbeat on the company’s military sales, likely the result of conversations he’s had with President Donald Trump, who appears to be committed to increasing spending on the U.S. Air Force. Trump had complained about the high cost of Lockheed Martin Corp.’s (NYSE: LMT) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and suggested that Boeing’s F/A-18 may be a suitable and cheaper replacement. Based on what we’ve seen, the Air Force is likely to push back on that plan.
Analysts at Jefferies noted the $200 million charge to the KC-46A tanker program in its note on Boeing’s results:
Despite a $0.32 charge for further cost growth on the KC-46, BA delivered good overall operating performance in Q4:2016. EPS was $2.47 vs. our $2.39 estimate. Full year-results were $7.24. Our Core EPS estimate is unchanged at $9.25 for 2017 and $10.00 for 2018. Operating Cash Flow grew to $10.5bb from $9.4bb and is projected to reach $10.75bb in 2017, with an increase likely in 2018. FCF could be in the range of $14 per share in 2017.
Jefferies raised its price target from $185 to $200 and maintained a Buy rating on the stock.
Merrill Lynch likes the company’s cash flow story but maintained its Sell rating and $135 price objective, based on the downturn in commercial jet orders:
Boeing is changing the face of commercial aerospace with the 787. We firmly believe that the use of composites as the primary structure on the 787 marks a fundamental shift in the industry. We expect the stock to be pressured in the medium term as Boeing grapples with industry concerns regarding overproduction as well as development and production risks on programs like the 787, 777X, and 737MAX.
Other analysts also weighed in on the company:
- Cowen raised its price target from $180 to $185 with an Outperform rating.
- Deutsche Bank raised its price target from $180 to $192.
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $121 to $124 with a Sell rating.
- JPMorgan raised its target price from $172 to $185 with a Neutral rating.
Boeing shares recently traded at $169.13, up about 1.1%, after posting a new 52-week high of $170.00 this morning. The 52-week low is $102.10 and the consensus price target is $161.70, not including these recent changes.
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