China And India Save GM's Bacon

GM said today that its sales in China were up 67% in 2009 to 1.83 million vehicles. The No.1 US car company believes that things could get even better. “Despite the sales records in 2009, it looks as if 2010 will be even stronger,” Kevin Wale, president and managing director of GM China Group, said in the statement.

GM’s expectations in India are nearly as great as those for China. The Indian market is smaller. GM expects to sell 100,000 cars in the world’s second most populus nation in 2010, an improvement of more than 40% from last year. India could become on of GM’s largest markets by the middle of the decade if the sales increase stays at the current pace.

GM may find that it is better to be lucky than good. The quality of its cars still generally lags behind vehicles manufacturers in Japan, particularly Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC). Korean manufacturer Hyundai is the fastest growing brand in the US. Hyundai has strong global distribution, so it can challenge GM in most markets.

GM is finding that as its sales in its home market plateaus they are improving sharply in emerging market. GM had either the foresight or good fortune to set up manufacturing and marketing partnerships in nations such as China back when the car market there was still small.

The turnaround of GM may work, but it will be largely due to improved sales outside the US.

Douglas A. McIntyre