Bass Hedge Fund Sees Huge Upside in GM

Bass said that the federal government’s sales of GM stock will end this year, and without that drag the company’s stock will trade no worse than inline with its competitors, chiefly Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). In a presentation published at HVST.com, Bass noted:

A strong case can be made that GM should trade at a premium to the group given its unique position and strong underlying fundamentals. … Once the U.S. government exits its remaining stake, GM will likely initiate a meaningful common stock dividend and or potential buyback … and if GM traded at a dividend yield equal to Ford’s 2014 projected dividend yield of 2.5%, GM shares would trade at ~$54/share which implies a ~38% upside to the current share price.

In our own analysis published a week ago, we noted GM’s rise out of bankruptcy has not moved the stock price much above the IPO price, while Ford, which managed to escape bankruptcy in 2009, has seen its shares rise more than 500% in the past five years. Over the past two years, Ford shares are up about 74% and GM’s shares are 86% higher. We concluded that GM looked like the better choice.

Shares of GM were up about 3.5% shortly before noon Wednesday, at $39.48 in a 52-week range of $24.40 to $39.62.