To appreciate the level of General Motors Co.’s (NYSE: GM) total car recalls this year, the best measure is they have matched all U.S. car and light truck sales of any kind in 2013. Sales of cars and light trucks across America reached 15.6 million last year. GM global recalls in 2014 is at 15.4 million.

The GM write-offs have hit $1.7 billion as the world’s largest auto manufacturer’s individual recall actions currently total 29 for 2014. While that write-off figure could wipe out a quarter of GM’s net income based on analyst forecasts for this year, almost all experts in liability law believe the number will go much higher. On the off-chance that GM’s Chapter 11 filing does not protect it against many suits charging death and injury, the dollar sum could move into the billions, which might offset GM’s entire net income for a year or more. The crippling effects of that are incalculable.

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GM’s financial future hinges on four things. The first is whether the recalls are over or there are still hundreds of thousands of cars and light truck with some level of safety problem that have not been recalled. The second is whether anyone in the senior management of GM knew about the safety issue. The third is whether courts will open the floodgates so that people who own or owned the recalled cars can take a piece of GM’s balance sheet. And the final thing is whether car buyers will stop purchasing GM automobiles because of anxiety about their quality.

As of today, GM has wiped out much of its gains since it left Chapter 11. Consumer research from companies that include J.D. Power and Consumer Reports have shown steady advance in GM vehicle quality. Those surveys are likely to show a retreat when they are completed for this year and next. GM’s profits, which have been based on U.S. and Chinese sales, have more than offset its losses in Europe. While profits in the People’s Republic may hold, those in the United States will not. GM’s next nightmare is that the Chinese government will inspect GM cars sold there and find defects that have so far gone undetected.

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GM’s near-term future has no upside, which has not been the case since the bottom of the recession. For the time being, it looks as if GM may slip into the financial horrors of that period.

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