Cars and Drivers

Can Tesla Live Up to Lofty Earnings Expectations?

Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the market close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of -$0.01 in earnings per share and $889.28 million in revenue. In the third quarter from the previous year, Tesla posted $0.12 in earnings per share and $602.58 million in revenue.

In its most recent earnings report, Tesla gave production guidance for the third quarter of between 9,000 and 11,000 cars. Gross margin was expected to be consistent with the second quarter, and the forecast was to be marginally profitable in the third quarter on an operating basis.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.75 in earnings per share on revenue of $1.39 billion.

Tesla expects to deliver some 35,000 vehicles by the end of 2014. We will also be paying close attention to the so-called Gigafactory for updates as well.

As the company approaches earnings, it has faced more obstacles for its auto sales in the United States when Michigan joined four other states — New Jersey, Maryland, Texas and Arizona — that have banned Tesla from selling directly to consumers. Auto dealers in the five states succeeded in persuading legislators that the property and sales taxes the dealers pay, combined with the number of workers they employ, are far more important than letting customers chose to buy what they want. Governor Snyder said that direct sales of new cars is already banned in Michigan. The vote in the Michigan legislature was supported by both political parties.

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In Europe, Tesla recently received the top safety rating for its Model S, five out of five stars from the European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP). The Model S is one of just a few cars that have received a five-star safety rating from both the Euro NCAP and the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It is the only car this year to receive five-star ratings from both Euro NCAP and NHTSA in every subcategory, including frontal impact, side impact and roll over. Since 2011, only two other cars have received the same ratings.

Tesla has received some favorable analyst calls as it approaches its earnings. Ascendiant Capital Markets initiated coverage of Tesla with a Buy rating and a $320 price target on October 30. Credit Suisse reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target of $324.93 on October 9.

Shares of Tesla recently fell below the 50-day moving average, after briefly testing it in mid-September. Shares rose again to test the 50-day moving average during the market sell-off in mid-October, but it acted as resistance and shares remained below. The 200-day moving average was tested during the market sell-off but has acted as strong support and shares bounced off it twice in the following weeks. The 200-day moving average reads at $226.50.

Shares of Tesla closed Tuesday down about 1.5% at $238.93. In the first hour of trading Wednesday, shares were down over 1% at $235.43. The consensus analyst price target is $269.78, and the 52-week trading range is $116.10 to $291.42. The market cap is about $30 billion.

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