Cars and Drivers

What GM Earnings Will Say About Ford

Even though General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) released its quarterly report on global new car sales late last week, there is still some suspense regarding the numbers the company will report in Thursday morning’s first-quarter earnings announcement. The consensus estimates call for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97 on revenues of $37.61 billion. The EPS estimate is sharply higher than last year’s actual first quarter EPS of $0.29.

Last year GM was in the midst of a massive recall that, at the time, seemed to worsen every week. That appears to be behind the company, at least for the time being.

The not-so-good news is that global sales were essentially flat with the first quarter of last year: 2,416,028 units in 2014 compared with 2,421,123 units sold in 2015. That is a gain of just 0.2% year-over-year. A lot will depend on the average selling price of GM’s new cars.

What about Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F)? Ford reports first-quarter results next Tuesday, and analysts currently expect EPS of $0.26 on sales of $33.92 billion. For all intents and purposes, that is flat with earnings and sales in the first quarter of 2014, but it is worth noting that the EPS estimate has dropped from $0.35 over the past 90 days.

Sales in China have slowed, especially at the higher end of the market, and Ford just introduced a new version of its full-size Taurus sedan that had been “stretched” to match cars from GM and others that accommodate owners who sit in the back seat of the chauffeur-driven cars.

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Earlier this month, Ford said that China sales rose 9% for the first quarter of 2015, roughly even with GM. Year over year however, Ford’s sales increased by just 1% in March. Ford’s sales in China amount to only about 30% of GM’s total: 296,825 Ford units sold compared with 961,135 GM units.

Ford’s 2014 sales were down year-over-year primarily due to the switch-over to the all-new F-Series aluminum-bodied pickup. That transition should be about complete by the end of this month or next, and Ford’s number should improve. But the first quarter could still be a bit bumpy.

GM’s stock traded down about 0.7% in the noon hour on Wednesday, at $36.92 in a 52-week range of $28.82 to $38.99.

Ford shares were down about 0.1%, at $15.81 in a 52-week range of $13.26 to $18.12.

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