Cars and Drivers

Would Warren Buffett Consider Acquiring Harley-Davidson?

When investors think about Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), they probably think of insurance and financial operations. Maybe they think of food, utilities or real estate, or maybe even rail operations now. But would investors dare to think of Buffett riding a Harley-Davidson?

At a time when many investors are thinking about Buffett’s next acquisition, 24/7 Wall St. cannot help but wonder if the Oracle of Omaha might consider tucking Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) into the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate structure.

The notion that Buffett might be the leader of a pack of bikers or that he would be the keynote speaker at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally probably sounds silly. In many ways, the notion that Buffett would not consider owning a company like Harley-Davidson seems just as silly. And Harley-Davidson’s latest fall from the earnings report might only just make the company even more attractive to Buffett.

Buffett is a lover of America, and he loves big American brands. Harley-Davidson has a solid position in its market. It is a highly sought after brand internationally as well, being considered among the world’s most respected brands. Harley Davidson recently signed a 75-year deal with the city of Sturgis, S.D., for its annual motorcycle mania event.

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Before you consider that Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway might not want to acquire or partner in a deal to acquire Harley-Davidson, just keep in mind that Buffett already has invested in the company. We also showed recently that Buffett is starting to invest along the lines of a private equity investor rather than just as an operating conglomerate. On investing in Harley-Davidson in the past:

Berkshire Hathaway was an investor in the $600 million round of senior unsecured notes for lending activities inside of Harley-Davidson. The notes were due in five years, but they came with a rate of 15%.

Would Buffett be scared about an earnings disappointment? Almost certainly not, even with muted guidance to consider. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.11 per share in 2015 and $4.58 per share in 2016. This would not quite be 14 times expected 2015 earnings, or about 12.5 times 2016 earnings. If Buffett loves to buy great brands and great companies even at premium prices, this is not a level that would scare him.

With revenues now running above $6 billion, $844 million in net income and almost $1.3 billion in EBIT might be enough to overcome the notion that the $12 billion market cap is four times book value. The company’s $1.2 billion or so in cash seems solid, but that would have been even higher had Harley-Davidson not repurchased $182 million worth of stock last quarter.

Harley showed that its gross margin for the Motorcycle segment was 39.1% in the first quarter, up from 37.7% a year earlier. First-quarter operating margin for the Motorcycle segment was 22.9%, versus 22.1% in last year’s first quarter.

What investors have to consider is that Berkshire Hathaway just went big into car dealerships. Buffett also promised to grow that business even further. Well, Harley-Davidson has a network of almost 1,500 dealerships spread over 90 countries. The company also made almost $65 million this last quarter alone just from financing operations — and we know Warren loves financial operations.

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It is hard to know whether Buffett might take on Harley-Davidson as a brand-multiplier company. Would he be able to sell candy or jewelry in Harley dealerships? Also, would the notion that Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICO and other insurance outfits make owning the top motorcycle brand a conflict of interest? (After all, many riders do die and get seriously injured on motorcycles.)

Analysts have positive views long term. The consensus price target is roughly $70, and the highest target is $78 — not bad for a stock just under $57 after the 10% post-earnings drop. Here are some of the recent calls from analysts with the equivalent of Buy ratings:

  • JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and cut its price target to $66 from $73.
  • RBC Capital Markets has an Outperform rating, but it took a more conservative target price down to $63 from $70.
  • Stifel recently kept a Buy rating, trimming target price to $73 from $75.
  • Wedbush has an Outperform rating and took its price target down to $74 from $76.

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One key issue that was a stumble, and the real reason the shares slid, was a slight decline in units sold. Dealers worldwide sold 56,661 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the first quarter of 2015, compared to 57,415 motorcycles in the year-ago quarter. In the United States, dealers sold 35,488 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the quarter, down 0.7% compared to sales of 35,730 motorcycles in the year-ago period. International dealers sold 21,173 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles during the quarter, compared to 21,685 motorcycles in the year-ago period.

Harley-Davidson said that it now expects motorcycle shipments to grow approximately 2% to 4% in 2015. This is down from a previous forecast of approximately 4% to 6% shipment growth.

A big concern here might be for what price Buffett could acquire Harley-Davidson. With shares at just under $57, the 52-week trading range is $54.22 to $74.13, and this was a $62 stock before the most recent earnings took out 10% of the value. Is the $12 billion market cap too big for Buffett? Hardly, but it might take $15 billion or more to get shareholders to go along with a buyout — and 85% or so of the shares are owned by financial institutions and mutual funds.

As far as what Harley-Davidson said with its earnings report, Keith Wandell, chairman, president and CEO, said (with quotes grouped):

While the first quarter had its share of headwinds, our business is strong and we remain clearly focused on executing Harley-Davidson’s strategy to be customer-led in everything we do, grow our reach among new customers in the U.S., grow internationally and continuously improve every aspect of our operations. We continue to manage Harley-Davidson for long-term performance from a position of great strength.

Given the first-quarter retail results, and ongoing, increased levels of aggressive competitive discounting in the U.S. which we expect will continue, we are taking the precautionary step of lowering our estimated growth rate for full-year motorcycle shipments in order to manage supply in line with demand and protect the premium nature of our brand.

Our brand is among the most iconic in the world and our motorcycles continue to generate great interest. … Sales in many of our emerging markets were up significantly in the quarter, including India, China and Mexico. And we continue to grow our network of nearly 1,500 independent dealerships in more than 90 countries globally.

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Lastly, here are the Buffett acquisition criteria. Needless to say, Harley-Davidson would fit into this structure in just about all terms, including the $5 billion to $20 billion size, consistent earnings power and simple business parameters.

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