Although new U.S. car sales for June are expected to be lower than May sales, industry analysts expect a sales jump of nearly 5% year-over-year, and Edmunds is projecting the best June sales on a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) basis since 2005.
Edmunds is forecasting sales of 17.3 million, while analysts at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) is projecting sales of 17.17 million in 2015 and WardsAuto is forecasting an annual rate of 17.2 million new vehicles sold. Kelley Blue Book’s (KBB) analysts have forecast June sales at an estimated 17.4 million SAAR.
On a monthly basis, Edmunds estimates June sales at 1.42 million, and KBB expects new car sales to reach 1.5 million for the month. Most automakers are expected to post year-over-year gains, but Edmunds estimates that all will post lower sales volumes in June than they did in May.
General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is the sole carmaker that Edmunds forecasts to post lower sales year-over-year in June. The analysts project a drop of 0.6%, from 293,000 units to about 267,500. Compared with the prior month, June sales are expected to drop 9.3%. KBB estimates June sales for GM at 284,000 units, up 6.2% year-over-year. GM’s market share in June is forecast at 17.9% by Edmunds and at 18.9% by KBB.
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Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is touted by the Edmunds’ analysts for a year-over-year gain of 1%, from unit sales of about 221,400 last June to 223,700 this year, but market share is forecast to slide by 0.5%. Compared with May sales, Edmunds projects a 10.6% drop in volume and a drop of 0.3% in market share. KBB sees Ford sales rising 4.8% year-over-year to 232,000 units.
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to post a year-over-year sales gain of 2.7%, from about 201,700 units last June to about 207,300. Edmunds also forecasts a year-over-year drop in market share of 0.3% and month-over-month declines of 14.6% in unit sales and 0.9% in market share. KBB sees Toyota sales rising 6.1% year-over-year for the month while market share remains flat.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) will post a 10.5% year-over-year sale volume gain to 189,000 units, according to KBB, and the company’s market share will rise by 0.5% to 12.6%. Edmunds projects Chrysler sales up 9.2% for the month to around 187,000 units and a market share gain of 0.5%. Month-over-month volumes are projected to be down 7.6% but market share will increase by 0.2%.
Both Edmunds and KBB project a year-over-year gain in sales volume for Volkswagen. Edmunds forecasts sales of about 48,800 compared with KBB’s forecast for unit sales of 55,000.
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