Carmakers will report February 2016 U.S. sales of new light vehicles next Tuesday, March 1, and analysts at Kelley Blue Book (KBB) expect monthly sales in the neighborhood of 1.37 million units and a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.9 million units. February sales have been strong and could reach the highest ever for the month — the February 2000 total of 1.5 million units sold.
Of the eight automakers tracked by KBB, all are expected to post solid year-over-year gains in September. Overall sales are pegged to rise by 9.1% year over year.
General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is tagged by KBB to post February market share of 18.2% of all U.S. light vehicle sales, with a total volume of 250,000 units. GM sold over 231,000 units in February 2015 and had market share of 18.4%.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to post new light vehicle sales of 202,000 in February, up 12.4% compared with February 2015. KBB expects market share to improve as well, from 14.3% last year to 14.7% this year.
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected by KBB analysts to post a year-over-year sales increase of 7.5%, from about 180,000 units last February to 194,000. KBB also sees Toyota market share slipping rising by 0.2 points year over year to 14.2% for the month.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) will post a 10.6% year-over-year sales volume increase to 181,000 units, according to KBB, and the company’s market share will increase by 0.2% to 13.2% in February. Chrysler’s market share in February 2015 totaled 13.0%.
Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to post a 12.8% year-over-year increase in sales to about 119,000 units. KBB sees Honda’s market share for February at 8.7%, up from 8.4% last February.
Year over year, volumes at Nissan, Hyundai-Kia and Volkswagen are forecast to rise by 8.9%, 3.6% and 4.0%, respectively, in February. KBB analyst Alec Gutierrez noted:
February 2016 numbers should reveal solid growth and continued momentum in the auto industry. Economic indicators remain positive for the industry, with the unemployment rate down below 5 percent, average home prices on the rise and gas prices averaging under $2 per gallon. However, increased incentives also are helping consumers close deals, as in recent months incentive spend has approached pre-recession levels.
Compact SUV and crossover sales are forecast to rise 25% year over year in February, to 199,000 units and 14.5% of the market. This segment leads in both volume and market share, with compact cars posting the second-largest share, 13.3%. Midsize car sales are forecast to be flat and full-size pickup sales are forecast to rise 8.3% year over year, respectively. Midsize SUV/crossover sales are forecast at 161,000 units and market share of 11.8% in February.
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