At an unveiling scheduled for 11:30 ET Thursday night, Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will take the wraps off the latest version of the company’s all-electric vehicles (EVs), the Model 3. This may be the most important car in the company’s stable, and more than a few people wonder if the Model 3 can beat back challenges from traditional carmakers like General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Hyundai that are scheduled to hit showrooms well ahead of the new Tesla sedan.

GM’s 2017 Chevy Bolt and Hyundai’s 2017 Ioniq EVs are both set for introductions before the end of this year, and both are targeting a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $30,000, $5,000 less than the MSRP for the Model 3. The $7,500 federal tax rebate lowers the Model 3’s base price to $27,500, but buyers have to pay the full price up front and file for the rebate with their tax returns. Those rebates have a limited life-span in the United States, however, and disappear after an automaker sells its first 200,000 EVs in the country.

It’s a little difficult to put a number to how many cars Tesla has sold in the United States, but the company has reported combined sales of about 42,000 Model S sedans for 2014 and 2015. Add in most of the 2,400 Roadsters and about half the 90,000 cars (Model S and Model X) Tesla plans to sell worldwide in 2016, and Tesla will have sold about 100,000 vehicles in the United States by the end of 2016. With the Model 3 not due to begin production until late next year, most of the full rebate credits will be used by the time the cars become widely available.

The rebate is halved for the first six months (to $3,750) after the first 200,000 vehicles are sold and halved again ($1,875) for the next six months, before disappearing completely.

The Hyundai Ioniq is expected to have a list price of $30,000 or less excluding any rebates. The new brand also comes in hybrid and plug-in hybrid variations. The EV’s range is cited as 110 miles, about half that of the Chevy Bolt’s 200-mile range and about a third the rumored 300 or so mile range of the Model 3 with the largest (and most expensive battery). Buyers wanting the large battery and other upgrades might have to pay north of $50,000 for a Model X.

The Model 3 might be the biggest deal yet for Tesla. Jack Nerad at Kelley Blue said:

The Tesla Model 3 could well be the most important vehicle Tesla Motors has ever launched.  It is important to Tesla because it will demonstrate that the company can actually realize its vision of introducing an accessible, affordable pure electric with substantial range.  It is important to the industry because it will signal whether or not Tesla Motors is a major threat to the status quo or just another wannabe car company with a fleeting chance for long-term success.

One might argue that the Model 3 provides the same signal for investors.

Tesla stock traded up about 3% at $233.51 early Thursday afternoon, in a 52-week range of $141.05 to $286.65. The consensus price target on the stock is $236.38.

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