Cars and Drivers

What to Expect When Tesla Releases Q1 Results After the Close

Chris Lange

Published: April 24, 2019 1:05 pm

Last Updated: January 30, 2020 9:39 pm

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is scheduled to release its most recent quarterly results after the markets close on Wednesday. For the quarter, the consensus estimates are a net loss of $0.69 per share and $5.33 billion in revenue. The first quarter of last year reportedly had a net loss of $3.35 per share and $3.41 billion in revenue.

With earnings on the way, there are already concerns from analysts and investors alike. While the consensus forecast for the bottom line calls for a net loss — which is nothing new for Tesla — some think that it could be worse than once thought, especially considering its recent delivery numbers, among other headwinds.

Although these consensus estimates are favorable compared to recent ones, the research firm Evercore ISI downgraded Tesla to an Underperform rating from In-Line and dropped its price target to $240 from $330, implying downside of 12% from the most recent closing price of $273.26.

Evercore’s Arndt Ellinghorst suggested on the call that there are many good reasons to worry about Tesla, including increased competition, lower U.S. tax credits and an “aging” product lineup. Ultimately, Ellinghorst believes that these headwinds will precipitate a 40% decline in earnings per share by 2020.

Recently, Tesla reported weaker-than-expected deliveries for the first quarter as a whole, as well as for its bread and butter, the Model 3 midsize sedan.

On April 3, the company announced that it delivered about 63,000 cars, which was well below analysts’ expectations of 76,000 deliveries. Deliveries of the Model 3 midsize sedan came in at 50,900. However, Tesla did say that it produced about 77,100 cars during the quarter.

Earlier this quarter, Tesla faced another headwind in the form of revised tax incentives. The credit for Tesla buyers was halved to $3.750 beginning on January 1, 2019. In an effort to keep buyers incentivized, Tesla cut its prices by roughly $2,000 on all models to offset the tax credit reduction.

If the deliveries issue was not enough, Tesla has also faced executive departures and layoffs this quarter.

Overall, Tesla has underperformed the broad markets, with its stock down about 21% year to date. In the past 52 weeks, the stock is down closer to 9%.

Shares of Tesla were last seen trading at $262.83, in a 52-week range of $247.77 to $387.46. The consensus analyst price target is $311.68.