The Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) market cap reached $73 billion as its shares rocketed above $400 for the first time, driven mainly by the anticipation of its success in China. That is double the market cap of troubled Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), one of the largest car companies in the world, which has a market cap of $34 billion. Ford’s fortunes in China have been crumbling, which has made its investors pessimistic.
It would not be fair to put the entire market caps of the two companies on just the shoulders of their activity in China. However, investors and much of the auto press has been impressed by Tesla’s plans to build a factory there, unofficially called Gigafactory 3, the third of Tesla’s large production facilities. The theory is that Tesla will be able to more easily handle growing demand in China with a factory that is based in the country. So far, this future is hope, not a reality.
Ford, however, has proven that its fortunes in the world’s largest car market continue to disintegrate. In September, Ford only sold 64,383 vehicles in China a drop of 43% from the year before. Although the Chinese car market is shrinking, it is so large that no global manufacturer can thrive without strong sales there. Ford has said nothing solid about how it will reverse its fortunes.
Market capitalization and stock price are built as much on expectations as current events. Tesla remains the leader in the electric car business, which is considered the future of the industry, along with self-driving cars. Ford management has made presentations showing that it plans to move in the same direction. However, execution has been thin, as have been details about Ford’s specific plans.
Ford also has done little in its home market in the United States to fuel the belief that it can be a success here. It has eliminated most of its car lines and will rely on crossovers, sport utility vehicles and pickups, though its Mustang is among cars that keep their value the longest. In fact, some other car companies will kill brands as early as next year. That means it will lean on the F-150 pickup, its most successful vehicle in America, by far. Yet, the F-150 has growing competition from Chevy and from the Ram division of Fiat Chrysler.
Based on how the market values Tesla, and how it values Ford, the modest-sized electric car company has a better future than the huge American manufacturer, which began in 1903.
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