Ford’s stock has dropped over 40% so far this year. That is about the same as General Motors shares and somewhat less than the 33% fall-off Tesla has seen. Among the reasons for the decline are the lingering supply chain problems and a recession that already may have started.
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Ford has not been as swift to the markets with its F-150 Lightning as investors would like. Ford’s electric pickup should dominate its potentially huge sector of the market and stake a position rivals may not be able to undercut. Ford has millions of F-150s already in the market. Consumers who want to switch to electric vehicles (EVs) will be driven by product loyalty. That means Ford has a huge built-in market. The Lightning has a reasonable base price of less than $40,000 and qualifies for a possible federal tax credit.

The market for electric pickups in the United States almost certainly will reach millions a year in a few years. A consumer move into EVs may be helped by high gas prices, which will not go away this year or next.

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Ford has been damaged by worries that the launch of all EVs will be hurt by supply chain hurdles. While this is true, the success of the new F-150 Lightning may be delayed, but not undercut.

Ford’s shares have long depended on the success of the F-150, and that will not end. The Lightning is why the stock price will turn around.

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