Banking, finance, and taxes

The Best Big Credit Card Issuer Stock for 2014

24/7 Wall St. has been evaluating peers and rivals for valuation analysis now that the end of the year is coming up. Stocks have been challenging all-time highs and the S&P 500 index is up about 26% year to date. We think that investors will be trying to figure out which stocks to buy and which ones to sell for tax purposes in 2013 and positioning for 2014.

The largest credit card issuers are American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) for the higher-end consumers, followed by Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) and Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) for regular credit card issuance. All offer some other services, but the bulk of their business is credit cards.

24/7 Wall St. wants to see which is cheaper for the long haul and wants to compare and contrast these names. We took a look at valuations and earnings expectations based on Thomson Reuters estimates. We have already shown which of the banking giants has the most value for investors in 2014, and this is a review of the large card issuers. Visa and MasterCard were not counted here because they are the mechanism and toll road provider rather than issuer taking the direct risk.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) has seen its shares rise 47% so far in 2013 to $83.80. The higher-end card issuer is a top holding of Warren Buffett, and the consensus analyst price target of $82.04 implies that its upside may be limited if no analyst upgrades come into play. Shares have traded in a range of $54.16 to $83.83 over the past year. With a 2014 earnings estimate of $5.40 per share, it is valued at 15.5 times next year’s expected earnings. What is interesting is that the dividend yield is a low 1.1%, almost as though the company can make investors accept lower dividends because of the safer client base and the annual card fees.

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) is up 22% so far in 2013. This bank and card issuer is currently trading at $69.60, and its consensus analyst price target of $78.41 implies upside of 13%. Its shares have traded in a range of $50.21 to $72.99 over the past year. With a 2014 earnings estimate of $6.96 per share, it is valued at 10 times next year’s expected earnings. Capital One pays a 1.7% dividend yield, and of course it does have banking operations and Internet banking.

Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) has seen its shares rise some 37% so far in 2013. The stock currently is trading above $52.00, and the consensus analyst price target of $58.88 implies upside of 13%. Shares have traded in a range of $37.24 to $54.45 over the past year. With a 2014 earnings estimate of $5.08 per share, it is valued at 10.2 times next year’s expected earnings. Discover’s dividend is in the middle of the two at 1.5%.

The reality is that the credit card sector is in a conundrum. American Express gets a far higher market multiple, yet as long as things go fine then Capital One and Discover will be able to pump out great returns based on 18% to 22% interest rates on their card balances. American Express is trading above the consensus price target and has performed so strong that we wonder if it is not time for a serious breather for this Dow Jones Industrial Average component.

When it comes to a race between Capital One and Discover, it seems to be a matter of what goes in your wallet. Capital One has a higher dividend and has not had as strong a stock performance in 2013. The analyst community has virtually the same upside projections on both, so we will lean toward trusting that Capital One’s rounds of acquisitions will pay off, despite a slight decline in expectations for 2014.

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