Banking, finance, and taxes

2 Opposite Analyst Views of the American Express Earnings

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) may be a big favorite of Warren Buffett, but the credit card issuer has fallen on harder times in 2015. Now a post-earnings reaction has taken shares even lower.

American Express shares were last seen down 5.9% at $72.00 and the stock hit a new 52-week low on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock now has a 52-week range of $71.39 to $94.89.

24/7 Wall St. does not have any great favorable view right now for AmEx, but we did include AmEx as one of nine stocks that can raise dividends for the next decade. That has not changed after the earnings report.

Also after earnings, we have seen two very different analyst reports.

Janney Capital Markets maintained its own Buy rating and $91.00 price objective, but the firm lowered earnings expectations and had cautious commentary.

Oppenheimer has a very low rating of Underperform on American Express. That would be called a “Sell” rating at most firms. Oppenheimer even has a $68.00 price target over the next 12 to 18 months.

Oppenheimer’s analyst report from Ben Chittenden said:

American Express reported third quarter EPS of $1.24, below our Street-low $1.26 EPS and consensus of $1.31 EPS. The weakness was driven by continued deceleration in billed business growth. In addition, management lowered guidance a touch for 2015 (prior was EPS would be flat to down YoY; now down 4% to 7%), but maintained the 2016 and 2017 growth guidance. We think investors should take note as it raises the probability the company “kitchen sinks” its fourth quarter by front-loading as much of the growth spending as possible into Fiscal Year 2015. It would make the pledge to return to growth in FY2016/17 that much easier, a movie we have seen before with other financials that could very well play out here.

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The report from Sameer Gokhale of Janney Capital Markets said:

Following the release of American Express’ 3Q15 results, we are lowering our EPS estimates. We estimate that the company generated operating EPS of $1.26 ex items (compared to our previous estimate of $1.30), which was below our estimate of $1.29 and in line with the consensus. Our revised estimates take into account a higher level of investment spending and slower revenue growth than we had previously forecast. We are also establishing a 2017 EPS estimate. We are maintaining our fair value estimate and our Buy rating.

The company continues to expect some growth in EPS regardless of what happens to the Costco portfolio and any gains from the sale. We have not factored in a gain on sale into our updated EPS estimate for 2016.

We are lowering our 4Q EPS to the lower end of the implied range, lowering our full year 2015 EPS estimate to $5.23 from $5.41 and lowering our 2016 EPS estimate to $5.49 from $5.68 primarily to reflect higher expenses than we had previously forecast. We are also establishing a 2017 EPS estimate of $6.14.

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