UBS (UBS) may lose money every quarter from now until the end of time. As the Swiss bank raises $16 billion, it has acknowledged that past deficits may not be the last of it. That puts up the storm flags for US banks.
According to The Wall Street Journal, "UBS said further write-downs may hit earnings, and it said in May that some asset classes continued to deteriorate and will hamper future earnings."
Across the water, in the US, Lehman (LEH) has just announced atrocious earnings. That may not be the end of it.
Banks like Citigroup (C) hold asset classes not unlike those at UBS. Whether they hold them in greater or lesser numbers is simply the subject of speculation. Only the accountants in the basement of the Citi headquarters know for certain.
What is known is that Citi’s shares dropped below $20 for the first time since mid-March when financial shares were overwhelmed by selling. Several US banks had to raise money. Citi was one of them.
Shareholders at Citi will now have to gird up their loins. The worst may be yet to come.
If the big US bank has to raise more money, and that it likely, it may have to offer shares at below the market as UBS did. The could pull shares down toward $15.
While Citi has changed management, some of its problems may be intractable.
Down on Wall St., Hell is coming for breakfast.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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