More Love For Irish Banks (AIB, IRE)

Irish shares are ripping higher again this morning after big gains in Tuesday.  This morning there are comments from Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan denying any default possibilities.  Lenihan was noted as saying that it was not feasible for an Irish debt default on the senior debt of the state-owned banks there in Ireland.  What is noted is that subordinated debt holders can expect further ‘discounts,’ implying lower prices against Par value.

Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) is up about 8.5% at $1.39 on active volume pre-market while Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) is up about 7.5% at $2.64 on heavy volume.  This is a day after double-digit percentage gains.

The catch is whether or not everything goes as planned and whether the internal and external pressures overturn all of the efforts.  The austerity measures in Ireland may have many ramifications in the future and knowing whether or not future regimes can try to or would be able to reverse this progress is an unknown factor for many investors holding debt and equity in Irish institutions.

There have been so many stumbles along the way in these austerity measures that finding the final-final outcome has become more of a matter of faith than fact.

JON C. OGG