Banking, finance, and taxes

Moody's Bank Downgrade Warnings Look Very Staged (CS, MS, UBS, BCS, DB, GS, HBC, BAC, NMR, FAS)

If you think ratings agencies do not quite matter any longer, today may be a reminder that they can still create at least some nervousness even if they are just late to the party.  Moody’s has a downgrade warning on 17 banking and investment banking outfits.  While this is a ‘warning’ rather than a downgrade, this certainly looks and feels staged to the point that the downgrades on most of the banks and investments seems assured on level or another. In short, this is being staged.

In the Moody’s warning, Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) were put on notice that their credit ratings could be downgraded potentially by as many as three notches.  That is a very aggressive downgrade warning, and it now almost assures that a downgrade of one or two notches is almost certain.

Warnings of a two notch downgrade were handed out to Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS), BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC). This seems to all but assure that at least a one notch downgrade could come on these.

Interestingly enough, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NMR) were “only” given warnings of a possible one notch downgrade.

Moody’s noted that these existing ratings just do not reflect the current market challenges.  Here are the pre-market trading indications on each, in New York trading indications:

  • Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) -0.7% at $25.36;
  • Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) -2% at $18.58;
  • UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) is down only $0.01 at $13.91;
  • Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) is down 0.4% at $14.97;
  • Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is down 1.2% at $42.45;
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is down 0.5% at $112.55;
  • HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) is down 0.5% at $44.69;
  • Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is down 0.8% at $7.72.

Even the triple-leveraged Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) is down ‘only’ 0.7% at $86.30 in the pre-market.

What is interesting here is that the move lower this morning is on the heels of major moves higher since the first of the year.  The downgrades seem assured on at least some level now, but the market is not really acting as though it is ready to panic.

JON C. OGG

The #1 Thing to Do Before You Claim Social Security (Sponsor)

Choosing the right (or wrong) time to claim Social Security can dramatically change your retirement. So, before making one of the biggest decisions of your financial life, it’s a smart idea to get an extra set of eyes on your complete financial situation.

A financial advisor can help you decide the right Social Security option for you and your family. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you.

Click here to match with up to 3 financial pros who would be excited to help you optimize your Social Security outcomes.

 

Have questions about retirement or personal finance? Email us at [email protected]!

By emailing your questions to 24/7 Wall St., you agree to have them published anonymously on a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

By submitting your story, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.