What will investors look for in 2015 now that the bull market is almost six years old? Stocks have risen exponentially from the bottom in March of 2009. In 2014, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.5% and the S&P 500 Index rose 11.4%. While those index gains do not account for individual stock dividends, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) closed out 2014 at $62.58, for a gain of 9.9%, including its dividend adjustments.

24/7 Wall St. has undertaken a bullish and bearish case to evaluate both sides of the coin and see what lies ahead for Jamie Dimon and his team in 2015 and beyond. Afterward, we include valuation analysis for the likes of Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C).

One key consideration for the year ahead is that the money center banking giant is getting ever further past its trading losses and charge-off scandals. Also, Jamie Dimon is now believed to be healthy and cancer-free.

J.P. Morgan had a 2014 trading range of $52.97 to $63.49, and the consensus analyst price target of $67.90 would imply upside of 8.5% this year. Then there is the dividend yield of 2.6% to consider, which would make for an implied total return of close to 11% if the analysts are correct.

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Note that in our same DJIA component bullish and bearish analysis a year ago, the pool of analysts called for a gain of roughly 8.4% for 2014. It returned 9.9% instead. It is good that it outperformed consensus expectations, but the return is much closer to what was expected than we saw in most other DJIA stocks relative to their bullish and bearish outlooks from a year ago.

J.P. Morgan has a market cap near $234 billion, and its fortress balance sheet has had assets of over $2.5 trillion for two quarters in a row, without knowing what the year-end balance sheet looks like at the time this was published.

J.P. Morgan is not necessarily cheap compared to all banks at 11.5 times current earnings, but the earnings multiple of 10 times expected 2015 earnings per share puts it at a handy discount to the broader stock market. That being said, banks are supposed to trade cheaper than the market.

The big question when it comes to valuations is that J.P. Morgan’s revenues have grown very slowly. The delay of certain parts of the Volcker Rule is just not likely going to be enough to offset the former trading revenues.

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Since the woes of the London Whale scandal, Jamie Dimon lost his mouthpiece. Calling it a “tempest in a teapot” was a mistake. Now Dimon is getting the ability to become vocal again, but it seems that he wants to avoid being as much of an industry spokesperson. After all, who wants to make themselves the number-one target.

Where J.P. Morgan shares settle ahead depends on many of the same factors as with other banks — where does its book value go (from $56.50 per share at its last earnings report) and how does the market treat financial stocks? Another wild card is that as we get closer to the end of 2015, the presidential candidate hopefuls almost certainly will be out with how they want to regulate business and commerce — and that includes how they will treat the banks.

The current hope by many is that banks will become regulated utilities. Others, such as the vocal Elizabeth Warren, are still arguing for an outright breakup to avoid anything close to a repeat of what we suffered through during the Great Recession.

There also remains the issue of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Will they or won’t they? Or how soon and by how much will they? Banks enjoyed great profits from the zero-rate environment for a while. Now it is to the point that the banks need higher rates so they can make money on their reserves and on the funds they hold as customer deposits.

One last consideration is that J.P. Morgan likely will be allowed to buy back more common stock and to increase its dividend again. The current $1.60 annualized dividend is less than 30% of expected 2014 and 2015 earnings per share. J.P. Morgan’s current dividend yield for the common stock is about 2.65%, better than Bank of America and Citigroup, and very close to Wells Fargo.

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So, how does J.P. Morgan hold up against its peers? The bank trades at a slight premium to its book value. Wells Fargo trades at a premium as well, but rivals Bank of America and Citigroup are still at discounts.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) trades at 0.8 times book value and trades at 11.75 times expected 2015 earnings. Its market cap is $182 billion, and the year-end price of $17.89 would imply upside of 2.3% on the surface, or almost 3.5% if you include the dividend. Oppenheimer recently raised its price target to $21 for Bank of America.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was recently noted by Oppenheimer as having a slightly lower net charge-off assumption and as having the second quarter of a new string of consecutive quarterly earnings gains, which may continue through a few years. Based on Wells Fargo’s 2016 earnings per share estimate, the firm raised the price target to $60 from $59. The consensus price target of $54.75 implied a consensus upside of almost 2.5% from the 2014 ending price of $54.82, thanks in whole to that dividend. Keep in mind that Wells Fargo is valued at 1.66 times book value per share now, and also that Warren Buffett has stopped buying shares in his latest holding reports.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) may still be absorbing $3.5 billion in legal and repositioning charges against its fourth quarter, and it will be interesting to see how the “core-Citi” earnings come in during the first half of 2015. Oppenheimer recently raised its price target to $70 from $67, and the $60 or so consensus price target implies potential upside of almost 11% from the $54.11 year-end close. If Citi gets to resume a better dividend than the paltry $0.04 payout now, then investors are likely to treat the stock better on its discount to book value — it trades at less than 0.8 times book value.

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The one other consideration is that many of the statutes of limitations are coming up for liability in new suits that were tied to the mortgage crisis. Those really bad mortgage loans and foreclosed properties were purchased from 2006 to 2008, and we are now in 2015. That implies that new mammoth multibillion settlements and fines are closer to being over than they are to the beginning. Still, you can almost count on new fines and settlements hitting the news wires in 2015.

Stay tuned.

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