Banking, finance, and taxes

Why AmEx Dividend and Buyback Hikes Might Not Tempt New Shareholders

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) is trying to please its shareholders by increasing its dividend and by increasing its share repurchase plan. 24/7 Wall St. would admit that this is not bad news, not at all. Still, the news might not really be enough to signal that a turnaround is now handily at foot. Also, a lot of this news release was anticipated — and the gain in the dividend payout did not live up to the baseline expectation we previously gave.

As a reminder, AmEx shares were down close to 20% from their 52-week high, and the stock was within about 4% of a 52-week low.

American Express said that its board of directors has approved the repurchase of up to 150 million common shares. This newer buyback plan aims to replace the prior 150 million share repurchase program, and that existing plan had roughly 45 million shares of common stock that could still be repurchased.

The biggest part of the news is that AmEx’s board approved a 12% payout increase in the company’s quarterly dividend. That translates to a $0.03 per share gain per quarter, up to $0.29 per common share. Again, investors might also want to consider that some of this news was anticipated. The hike was also a tad less than we were hoping for. When 24/7 Wall St. named AmEx as one of the coming dividend hikes, we said:

It seems a safe bet that it will raise its dividend to $0.30 per share in April, but shareholders could — and should — demand more of a dividend hike. Maybe much more.

The press release referred back to the Federal Reserve’s capital return plan, yet another reminder that much of this news was expected. The release said:

As previously announced on March 11, 2015, the company was informed that the Federal Reserve did not object to the company’s 2015 capital plan to repurchase up to $6.6 billion of common shares through the second quarter of 2016, as well as to increase the company’s quarterly dividend to $0.29 per share beginning with the second quarter 2015 dividend declaration. The timing and amount of common shares purchased under the Company’s authorized capital plan will depend on various factors, including the Company’s business plans, financial performance and market conditions.

If you translate 150 million shares into a total dollar amount, a $79.08 closing price would generate a total buyback of almost $12 billion. That is against an $80 billion market cap. Now consider that AmEx had $27.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet at the end of March, while its net tangible assets after removing all liabilities and intangible assets was $21.83 billion.

AmEx investors will want to always consider that, just like most other buyback plans, the repurchases are listed as taking place from time to time — and they are subject to market conditions and subject to the Federal Reserve’s non-objection of the company’s capital plans. AmEx’s new dividend is payable on August 10, 2015, to shareholders of record on July 2, 2015.

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Again, this is not bad news. It is just news that was largely anticipated, and it again seems as though AmEx could return more via dividends, considering that it is a very old and well established financial giant. The new yield will be 1.46%, which remains unimpressive for a Dow Jones Industrial Average component.

American Express shares closed down 0.8% at $79.08, and shares were up 1.1% at $79.08 in the after-hours reaction to the headline. AmEx has a 52-week range of $76.53 to $96.24, and the consensus analyst price target is just over $86.00.

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