Banking, finance, and taxes

The Bull-Bear Case for DJIA Financial Stocks in 2017: Amex, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Visa, Travelers

Jon C. Ogg

Published: January 7, 2017 9:45 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 4:05 pm

Now that 2016 has ended and 2017 has begun, it is important to reflect on what has been seen and what should be expected in the year ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed out 2016 up 13.4% at 19,762.60, outperforming the 9.5% gain for the S&P 500 and the 7.5% gain for the Nasdaq. One sector that turned out driving the cart was the financial sector. Huge post-election gains under Donald Trump’s expected lower regulations and pro-business stance driving interest rates higher helped the financial sector.

While past year gains are important, one issue to consider is whether huge gains up front effectively steal gains from the future. 24/7 Wall St. reviews each sector and component within the Dow each year to derive target prices ahead. The 19,700 Dow target for 2016 came within less than 0.5% of being accurate, and that forecast was made without ever factoring in Trump/Clinton into the mix.

While there is a path to Dow 22,000 for late 2017 or in 2018, the first view is quite mixed on the financial sector. It used to be that for the market to rally you had to have financial sector participation. That changed in the years after the recession. What should be considered now is that some of the financial stocks peaked early in December and with big double-digit gains since the November 8 elections.

Whether these ran too much in too short of a time remains to be seen. On the fundamental side of this, a pro-business administration that does not attack the financial giants sounds good on the surface. Less regulation, more loaning, more trading and less compliance spending sound positive for earnings. And higher net interest margins and the ability to have higher fees sound good for earnings. Still, the question is what can actually get passed by Congress and signed by Trump as president versus what is hoped for.

Unlike the five financial giants still trading under book value, these five financial stocks, out of the 30 Dow components, are all above book value. These five also have a total index weighting combined of almost 21% of the total index. Here is a review of the five financial stocks that make up the Dow.

American Express

This credit card giant spent most of 2016 in the dog house. American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) has faced serious account losses from the likes of Costco and elsewhere, but a 16% gain the fourth quarter alone allowed Amex shares to generate a return of 8.6% in 2016, with a $74.08 per share close on the last trading day of the year. Maybe all the rising interest rates will allow Amex to generate higher interest income from its credit card balances that get carried over by its clients.

While its shares recovered to a positive gain in 2016, the year-end consensus analyst target price of $72.88 would imply downside risk of −1.6%. Fortunately, its 1.7% yield could save the day and make for a whole 0.1% total return in 2017, if the analysts on average managed to get their calculations right.

It’s very possible that American Express could have seen an even stronger 2016, but with the loss of Costco and no real replacement in sight, Amex might find itself without a paddle when it starts comparing year-over-year numbers later in 2017.

On the other hand, if the Trump rally persists, Amex could continue to push forward along with these other financial stocks. Ever more investors are rotating their portfolios into the financial sector to capitalize on this incredible growth. In just the past six months alone, this company is the third-best performing Dow stock, only beaten by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Warren Buffett is the largest holder of Amex shares, with over 16% of the shares outstanding, and he has been for years. Some analysts are far from enthusiastic here: Stephens issued a $65 target late in 2016, and RBC’s new target from the first week of 2017 is just $60.

Other targets on the street were raised after 2017 kicked off. Barclays now has an $83 target and Deutsche Bank has an $88 price target. A firm called Compass Point also added the stock to its Alpha List with an $87 price target.

American Express has a 52-week trading range of $50.27 to $75.74 and a market cap of $67 billion. Its dividend yield is 1.7%. Its weighting in the Dow comes in at 19th out of the 30 components, with a 2.6% index weighting.

Goldman Sachs

If a 34.92% gain to close 2016 at $239.45 sounds impressive, the real kicker is that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) shares ended 2016 over 60% higher from the post-Brexit lows in late June and early July.

Barclays recently raised its price target on Goldman Sachs to $262 from $210, but the firm maintained its Equal Weight rating, sending a somewhat mixed message. Yes, Goldman Sachs can continue to grow, but growth seems muted or already priced in compared to what the firm has done in this rally. Essentially, Barclays put a 9% cap on the growth.

Some other analysts have a similar view for Goldman Sachs. Outside of the company landing two top positions in the upcoming administration, HSBC is calling for a $250 target and Deutsche Bank now has a $255 target. If lower regulation allows for more trading, the company’s profit history could dictate even better earnings and far more upside than its paltry dividend yield.

Goldman Sachs now has a premium of about 1.3 times its book value. It is also valued at 13 times forward earnings, a premium to the post-recession years even if it is far lower of a valuation than the stock market as a whole. Goldman Sachs is also being viewed as a winner due to two of its alumni being selected by the Trump team for his administration and cabinet positions.

The shares have a 52-week range of $138.20 to $245.57, and the market cap is $99 billion. The dividend yield is 1.1%. Goldman Sachs has the highest weighting of all 30 Dow stocks at 8.3%, making it more important to the Dow’s index gains and losses than the combined weights of Nike, Coca-Cola, Intel, Pfizer, GE and Cisco.

JPMorgan

The closing price of $86.29 on the last day of the year represented at a return of 34.5% for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). What stands out is that this was a second-half winner, and that gain was driven even further by the rising interest rate environment after the election. JPMorgan shares actually were up more than 40% from the post-Brexit lows six months earlier, a testament to just how pessimistic and unenthusiastic financial sector investors were during the first half of 2016.

After the start of 2017, Barclays raising its price target on JPMorgan to $100 from $79, implying more or less a 15% upside. Although this is a striking contrast to the consensus price target of $83.45, implying some downside. Either Barclays is ahead of most other analysts, or they don’t see JPMorgan doing that well in 2017.

One huge advantage that this megabank had in 2016 was its ironclad balance sheet, which helped preserve JPMorgan through a volatile year. Undoubtedly, the bank will look to keep this up through 2017, and even as interest rates are looking to grow too. The debacle over account openings at Wells Fargo also removed any remaining clouds that would have been over Jamie Dimon after the London Whale debacle. Dimon heading up JPMorgan is a match made in heaven, with such strong management in place, 2017 should be easy to navigate, especially in an increasingly pro-business environment. Back in February 2016, Dimon made an incredible bet, calling a bottom to what was a dismal correction and making a solid profit as well.

At this point, JPMorgan shares dropped to their 52-week low, but they quickly gained 15% or so off this low within a month. Needless to say, this bank is incredibly resilient. JPMorgan shares are valued at just over 13 times forward earnings and about 1.3 times book value. Rising interest rates are expected to be a big help here, but the multiples that investors are paying in 2017 are far higher than post-recession years when earnings were subdued.

The 52-week range is $52.50 to $87.39, and the market cap is $304 billion. JPMorgan has a dividend yield of 2.2%. It also has a neutral bias when it comes to the 30 weightings in the Dow. It is ranked 16/30 in index weightings, with a 2.95% weight.

Visa

Posting the lowest return out of financial stocks in the Dow was Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), closing the year with a measly 1.4% gain to $78.02. While 2016 was a disappointment to shareholders, Visa also came off a strong 2015 in which it returned just below 20% and had a massive four-for-one stock split, taking it out of the number one weighted-spot on the Dow.

Although Visa had a weak close to 2016, analysts are predicting a much brighter 2017. The consensus price target is pegged at $94.19, which implies an upside of nearly 21% from that $78.02.

Visa also has a few more avenues open for it this year. Just this past summer, Visa initiated a deal with famed online payment provider, PayPal. Together the companies will partner up, giving Visa customers a network online network for digital payments while also bringing more business to PayPal. But keep in mind they will face some stiff competition breaking into this market; Visa and PayPal are up against the likes of Google Wallet and Apple Pay.

Visa was one of the companies buying back the most stock in 2016, at a grand total of $7.1 billion in shares repurchased. At the end of the 2016 fiscal year, the company had a $5.7 billion remaining under the repurchase authorization, approximately 3.5% of the total market cap.

Not to mention Visa Europe has been exploding as of late. In the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, Visa posted payments volume growth of 10% excluding Visa Europe, but including Visa Europe the company saw 47% growth year over year.

One issue that stands out about Visa is that it is not really a true financial company in the most classical sense. It processes, and while it does have some risk, it is really just a gatekeeper that collects a transaction toll rather than doing the formal lending. That gives it more of a technology flair, and that explains why its forward earnings multiple is 21 and not between 10 and 15. That also explains why it is at seven times book value and why it can get away with such a low dividend yield.

Visa has a 52-week range of $66.12 to $83.96 and a market cap of $165 billion. Its dividend yield is 0.8%. Visa’s rank is 18/30 on the Dow, with a 2.8% index weighting, although that used to be far higher prior to a split.

Travelers

Often considered the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock that nobody really remembers, Travelers Companies Inc. (NYSE: TRV) still generated a total return of 11% to end the year at $122.42

Travelers shares actually rose above and beyond the year-end consensus analyst target of $117.00. If analysts are correct, that represents that Travelers might actually have downside of −4.4% on the surface. The 2.2% dividend yield would help to halve that expected loss on a total return basis of −2.2%, if the analysts are accurate. Still, that target ticked higher over the past 90 days of the year by almost $3.

In one effort to show how much the valuation concerns have come up: Morgan Stanley used the first week of 2017 to downgrade Travelers to Underweight from Equal Weight, and it went with a below-consensus price target of $110. Still, in the first half of December, BMO Capital Markets raised its rating to Outperform, and it went from an above-consensus target of $120 for Travelers, all the way up to $135 in the next year or so.

Recent underwriting results for this firm reflected “lower net favorable prior year reserve development, higher non-catastrophe weather-related losses and higher-than-expected losses associated with auto bodily injury.” Withstanding this and going into the New Year, Travelers remained strong, as reflected in its last reported 92.9% combined ratio.

Last reported in October, returns from its high-quality fixed income portfolio declined in line with expectations due to the continued low interest rate environment, returns from non-fixed income portfolio improved from recent quarters and were comparable to late 2015. Considering the Fed decided to hike interest rates in November and the markets appear to be signaling a positive future, more Fed interest rate hikes could be in the cards, ultimately benefiting Travelers.

Travelers is valued at just over 12 times forward earnings expectations. It was also valued at 1.4 times book value at the end of 2016. Two analyst downgrades after the start of 2017 stood out, with Morgan Stanley and Atlantic Equities both taking their ratings down to Underweight with $110 price targets.

Travelers has a 52-week range of $101.23 to $123.09 and a market cap of over $34 billion. Its dividend yield is 2.2%. It has a 4.07% index weighting in the Dow, giving it a rank as the eighth most important Dow stock by its own weighting alone.