Banking, finance, and taxes

American Express Earnings Not as Good as Guidance

Paul Ausick

Published: January 19, 2017 4:46 pm

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 3:43 pm

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results after markets closed Thursday. The midstream giant posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 per share on revenues of $8.02 billion. In the same period a year ago Amex posted EPS of $0.89 on revenues of $8.39 billion. Consensus estimates called for EPS of $0.98 and revenues of $8.09 billion.

For the full year Amex posted EPS of $5.65 and revenues of $32.12 billion compared with EPS in 2015 of $5.05 and annual revenues of $32.82 billion. Analysts were looking for EPS of $5.75 and revenues totaling $32 billion.

Since the November elections the company’s stock has jumped about 15% ($10) per share and Amex likely saw more analyst upgrades since the election than any other Dow 30 stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13.4% in 2016 but Amex was not among the leaders, posting a below average gain of 8.6% for the year. Combined with a dividend yield of around 1.7%, the bear case for the stock is at least as strong as the bull case which is simply continued valuation hikes in the financial sector resulting from the Trump rally.

Excluding a restructuring charge related to cost reduction efforts, adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $0.91, and excluding restructuring charges related to cost reduction efforts, adjusted diluted EPS for the year came in at $5.93.

Amex also said that quarterly expenditures “reflected substantially higher levels of investment in growth initiatives and a $50 million ($32 million after-tax) restructuring charge.”

Provision for losses rose 9% year over year in the fourth quarter reflecting higher loan growth, and adjusted for sales of co-branded products in 2015, loss provisions rose 20% reflecting higher loan growth and a “slight increase” in both lending delinquency and net write-off rates.

CEO Kenneth Chenault said:

At the start of 2016 we said we would move with a strong sense of urgency to change the trajectory of our business. The results we’re reporting today reflect substantial progress on that commitment. Revenue performance strengthened sequentially and showed year-over-year growth on an adjusted basis. We are ahead of plans to reset our cost base and improve our operating efficiency. We were able to make substantial investments to capitalize on opportunities in the marketplace and strengthen our competitive position.

Excluding the impacts of the lost Costco business and unfavorable foreign exchange rates, adjusted quarterly revenues rose 6% and adjusted yearly revenues rose 5%.

For 2017 Amex expects EPS in the range of $5.60 to $5.80, an estimate “built on a set of priorities designed to put us in a strong position for 2018 and the years ahead.” Analysts were looking for EPS of $5.61 and had forecast revenues of $31.95 billion.

Shares traded down about 0.4% after hours on Thursday at $76.35 in a 52-week range of $50.27 to $78.00. The consensus 12-month price target is $78.56.