Fort Apache Detroit

Edmunds, the car research firm, comes out with projections of US monthly vehicle sales a few days before the car companies announce. The numbers are usually pretty good.

Domestic sales are expected to be 1.15 million, about flat with last year. But, adjusted for the fact that there was one more selling day this year than in January 2006, the US car companies are forecast to be in for another beating. Edmunds puts Chrysler’s sales down 6.5%, GM’s down 9.4% and Ford’s down 17.5%. That’s right–17.5%. Ford might as well have taken the entire month as a holiday.

Toyota’s sales are expected to rise 14.3%.

All of this would put the share of the Big Three at 52.4% down from 57.1% a year ago.

Edmunds forecasts by brand:

The combined monthly U.S. market share for the domestic nameplates of Chrysler (DCX), Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) is estimated to be 52.4 percent in January 2007, down from 57.1 percent in January 2006 and down from 52.7 percent from December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 151,000 units in January 2007, down 20.5 percent compared to December 2006. This would result in a new car market share of 13.2 percent for Chrysler in January 2007, down from 13.6 percent in January 2006 and down from 13.4 percent in December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 174,000 units in January 2007, down 22.7 percent compared to December 2006. This would result in a market share of 15.1 percent of new car sales in January 2007 for Ford, down from 17.7 percent in January 2006 and down from 15.8 percent in December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 277,000 units in January 2007, down 17.2 percent compared to December 2006. GM’s market share is expected to be 24.1 percent of new vehicle sales in January 2007, down from 25.8 percent in January 2006 but up from 23.5 percent in December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda (HMC) will sell 108,000 units in January 2007, down 18.1 percent from December 2006. Its market share is expected to be 9.4 percent in January 2007, up from 8.6 percent in January 2006 and up from 9.3 percent in December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 78,000 units in January 2007, down 15.1 percent from December 2006. Nissan’s market share is expected to be 6.8 percent in January 2007, up slightly from 6.7 percent in January 2006 and up from 6.4 percent in December 2006.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota (TM) will sell 191,000 units in January 2007, down 16.2 percent from December 2006. Toyota’s market share is expected to be 16.6 percent in January 2007, up from 14.1 percent in January 2006 and up from 16.0 percent from December 2006.

A body can only bleed so much.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in cmpanies that he writes about.