Cars and Drivers

Why Record Q3 Profits Are Not Helping Ford Shares

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported third-quarter 2015 results before markets opened Tuesday. The automaker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48 on revenues of $38.1 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.24 on revenues of $34.9 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.47 and $35.07 billion in revenues.

Automotive revenues totaled $35.82 billion in the quarter, up from $32.78 billion in the third quarter of 2014. Financial services revenues totaled $2.33 billion, up from $2.14 billion a year ago.

The consensus analysts’ estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is $0.52 on revenues of $35.55 billion. For the full year, the consensus estimates call for $1.69 in EPS and revenues of $137.6 billion.

North American sales totaled $23.7 billion and pretax profit came to $2.7 billion, an amount Ford said is a third-quarter record. Operating margin was 4.2% higher than in the third-quarter of 2014 at 11.3%. Wholesale volume rose by 106,000 units to 771,000.

In the company’s other regions, revenues were mixed year-over-year across the board, with sales down in South America and the Middle East/Africa regions, flat in Asia/Pacific, and up $100 million in Europe.

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Ford said it expects to post higher pretax profit in North America with operating margin near the top of its 8.5% to 9.5% guidance. The full-year loss is expected to be smaller in South America and Europe, while the Middle East/Africa region is expected to break even, and profits in Asia/Pacific are expected to improve. For the company as a whole, pretax profit continues to be forecast at $8.5 to $9.5 billion.

Global wholesale volumes rose by 103,000 units to 1.596 million, all the result of higher North American sales

Ford maintained its full-year pretax profit guidance of $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion. Fourth-quarter production volumes are forecast at 1.69 million units, up 164,000 compared with the year-ago quarter and up by 73,000 sequentially.

North American market share rose from 13.8% in the third quarter of 2014 to 14.1%, but fell from 14.4% in the first nine months of 2014 to 14.2% this year.

Bob Shanks, Ford’s CFO, said:

We had outstanding results this quarter, including record cash flow, net income more than doubling, and success in our business units. We are on track for year over year improvements and will meet our guidance in 2015.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Shanks also told reporters that fourth-quarter profitability “will be negatively affected by higher seasonal costs and potential payouts related to a new labor deal.” That comment is probably responsible for the weak share price in Tuesday’s premarket.

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Ford’s shares traded down about 5% Monday morning, at $14.89 in a 52-week range of $10.44 to $16.74. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $17.88 before the report.

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