Next Tuesday, automakers will report U.S. sales for the month of April, and the industry is set up for a record-setting month. March sales were up 3.2% year over year, but the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) dropped to 16.5 million units. The April SAAR is expected to rise back above 17 million. In April of 2015, the SAAR reached 16.7 million.
Analysts at Kelley Blue Book (KBB) have forecast a 4% year-over-year increase in April to 1.51 million units sold. The current record for April sales is 1.5 million set in 2005. KBB’s analysts have pegged the April SAAR at 17.5 million units.
WardsAuto is even more optimistic, forecasting April sales of 1.52 million units and posting a SAAR of 17.6 million for the month.
KBB’s Tim Fleming said:
Following a disappointing March, we expect sales to get back on track in April with SAAR in the mid-17 million range. Increased fleet sales and rising incentive spending among automakers remain the factors to watch, but retail demand appears to be holding steady, signaling the industry’s strong run isn’t over quite yet.
The number of fleet sales is an issue because they typically sell for a lower price than retail sales, driving volume up, but acting as a constraint on revenues and profits.
WardsAuto expects the daily sales rate of pickups to grow 7% year over year. That would indicate sales of around 889,000, which represents 58.4% of the total market for new vehicles in April.
We’ll have more detailed look at estimates for individual carmakers on Friday.
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