Automakers will be reporting July light vehicle sales totals on Tuesday, and if forecasts are correct, it will be a solid, perhaps even outstanding, month. Analysts at Edmunds.com expect July sales to total about 1.52 million units, and Kelley Blue Book (KBB) analysts are expecting sales of 1.5 million units. Those estimates translate to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of either 17.5 million sales (KBB) or 17.8 million sales (Edmunds). Either is well above last July’s SAAR of 16.6 million.
Edmunds expects year-over-year sales to rise 0.8%, as well as 0.7% compared with June 2016. Analyst Jessica Caldwell noted:
With low interest rates and a leasing market that’s stronger than ever, automakers have a great opportunity to build on last year’s burst of summer sales. The growth might not be as significant as in recent years, but it’s still growth nonetheless.
KBB forecasts year-over-year sales down 0.5% in July, including a steep 10.6% drop in Volkswagen sales. KBB analyst Tim Fleming said:
The new-car market currently appears to be reaching its peak in terms of sales, and now there is a better chance that 2016 won’t be another record year, as year-over-year comparisons for the remainder of 2016 will be tough.
Among U.S. carmakers, KBB expects General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) sales to fall 3.9% year over year to 262,000 while Edmunds analysts see sales of around 277,600, a rise of 1.9%. Edmunds forecasts GM’s July market share at 18.3%, up 0.2 points from July 2015 and up 1.4% month over month. KBB sees GM’s share at 17.5%, down 0.6 point year over year.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to sell about 218,300 (Edmunds) to 223,000 (KBB) units. Month over month, Edmunds sees Ford sales down a whopping 8.7%, and also down 1.7% year over year. KBB has forecast a gain of 0.4% year over year and a market share of 14.9%, up 0.1% year over year. Edmunds forecasts Ford market share of 14.4% in July, down 0.4% year over year and down 1.5% from June.
As Edmunds does not offer a reason for the big month-over-month dip in Ford’s projected unit sales, so we’ll feel free to offer our own. GM’s pickup sales tanked in June, down 3.7% for the Chevy Silverado and 7.8% for the GMC Sierra. GM just has to be able to do better than that in July. To stop the bleeding, GM kicked off a massive promotion for its two full-size pickups with incentives rising 76% month over month on Silverado and 147% on Sierra. If that doesn’t help sell GM pickups and at least slow down Ford sales, nothing will.
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to post July sales of 209,000 (KBB) to 212,600 (Edmunds) units. Toyota’s market share is forecast at 14% (Edmunds), down 0.4 point compared with July 2015 and up 0.9 point compared with the prior month. KBB puts the company’s July share at 13.9%, a drop of 0.5 point year over year.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) is expected to raise its July market share to 12.1% (KBB), up 0.3 point compared with July 2015. KBB forecasts unit sales to rise by 2.2% to 182,000 units, while Edmunds sees unit sales of 184,500, up 3.6% year over year, but down 6.4% from June.
Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) should post sales of about 146,000 (KBB) to 147,000 (Edmunds) units in July. Honda’s market share is forecast flat (KBB and Edmunds) at 9.7% year over year, as well as up half a point month over month by Edmunds.
KBB expects both Nissan and Hyundai/Kia to post market share gains compared with July 2015.
We’ve looked at KBB’s forecast for VW sales elsewhere, but we can’t fail to note that Edmunds forecast for year-over-year unit sales decline of 14.4% is even worse than KBB’s 10.6% estimate. KBB also believes Subaru’s July unit sales of 51,000 will top VW’s 48,000.
KBB also estimates full-size pickup sales up 3.1% year over year in July and compact sport utility vehicle (SUV)/crossover sales up 4.7%. The pickups get 13.1% of the total light vehicle market, compared with 17.9% for the compact SUV/crossover vehicles.
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