November Auto Sales Forecast on Track for Record Year

Among the automakers, WardsAuto expects a 21% decline in November sales for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU) and a 7.7% decline in sales for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is expected to eke out a gain of 0.7% and Hyundai/Kia is forecast for an even slimmer gain of 0.2%. Both Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) are forecast to see declines of 1.2% and 4.9%, respectively. Nissan sales are also expected to drop 5.5%.

If November sales meet WardsAuto’s projection, year-to-date total sales will stand at 15.8 million units, just above the 11-month total last year of 15.7 million units.

That’s the good news. The not-so-good news for automakers and dealers is that the November forecast for the daily selling rate (DSR) of 54,696 units is 4.9% lower than the November 2015 DSR. If the projection is accurate, November will be the fourth consecutive month to see a year-over-year sales decline.

Manufacturers incentives are also forecast to rise as they have in each of the past two months. WardsAuto sums it up:

[C]ombined with recent good economic news related to jobs, income and inventory, and indications [light vehicle] sales started out the month strong, heftier incentives and holiday bargains are likelier to push results higher rather than lower, if the forecast is off the mark.

WardsAuto expects full-year sales to rise to 17.4 million units, just a shade above 2015’s total of 17.396 million units.