US Car Sales Expected to Fall Sharply in July

By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Jan 12, 9:43AM EST · Published Jul 27, 6:45AM EDT

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US Car Sales Expected to Fall Sharply in July — © Thinkstock

Car sales in the United States continue to fall after two record years. According to a forecast by research firm Kelley Blue Book (KBB), sales of all brands will drop nearly 6% in July compared to the same month last year, and the figures for some of the largest manufacturers will be much worse.

According to KBB analysts:

This month, vehicle sales are expected to fall 5.7 percent year-over-year, resulting in an estimated 16.7 million SAAR. Kelley Blue Book expects the annual selling pace to remain below 17 million SAAR in July with volume dipping slightly from the levels seen in May and June 2017.

Among all automakers, Subaru is likely to see the only volume growth among all major automakers, while General Motors is expected to see the most significant drop in market share. At the segment level, market share for compact SUVs continues to lead. Full-size trucks are projected to post the smallest volume decline among all segments and gain nearly one point of share this month.

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General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) will carry much of the brunt of the fall. The GM line up includes Chevy, GMC, Buick and Cadillac. The sales of the largest U.S. car company will collapse 9.1% to 243,000. Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), which has the Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands, will take over the number two spot in sales from Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), which sells the Ford and Lincoln brands and usually holds that spot. Ford sales are expected to fall 6.2% in July to 203,000. Toyota sales are expected to drop 4.3% to 205,000. The third U.S. car company Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU) will suffer a sales drop of 6.9% to 168,000. Fiat sells Fiat, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler and Ram.

South Korean brands will post the worst drop of July, according to KBB. Sales of Hyundai-Kia are expected to fall 11.1% to 120,000.

Two of the smallest manufacturers that sell cars in America are expected to dodge the trend. Subaru, which has been the hottest selling brand in the country for months, should post a sales increase of 3.7% to 54,000. Its inexpensive, rugged, all-wheel drive cars have sold so quickly that dealers can barely keep them in stock based on “days on lot” figures. Volkswagen, which sells Audi, VW and Porsche, has shaken off the effects of its diesel scandal. Its sales are expected to be flat at 51,000. However, much of the strength of its sales are its two luxury brands.

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.