American car sales are likely to top 17 million again in 2019, the fifth year of sales above that extraordinary level. Even so, the figure will be down 1% compared to 2018, and not all manufacturers will perform the same. Nissan’s sales are expected to fall by 8.6% for the year. Hyundai Kia’s are expected to rise by 4.8%.

Cox Automotive has forecast 2019 sales at 17.09 million, compared to last year’s 17,320,982.

Among the four large manufacturers that dominated the U.S. market, FCA (Fiat Chrysler) is expected to do the best, with sales down 1.2% to 2,235,204. Toyota sales are expected to drop 1.4% to 2,426,667. Ford barely will edge out the largest Japanese car company. Its sales are expected to drop by 3.4% to 2,485,222. Market leader General Motors is forecast to post sales of 2,951,757, down 2.5%.

Nissan is the only one among the second-tier car companies to post a drop in sales this year compared to 2018. Its 8.6% fall-off will put its unit sales at 1,493,877.

Honda’s sales are expected to rise by 1.4% to 1,604,828. Hyundai Kia’s are projected to reach 1,267,621. Subaru sales are expected to rise by 3.5% to 680,135. And a 2.5% rise to 634,589 is anticipated for Volkswagen.

Cox points out that a strong economy, low-interest rates and low unemployment have been the primary drivers of the solid numbers. Those are unlikely to change anytime soon.

Nissan’s sales include Nissan and Infiniti brands. GM’s include Chevy, GMC, Cadillac and Buick. Ford’s include Ford and Lincoln. FCA includes Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge. Toyota includes Toyota and Lexus. Hyundai Kia includes Hyundai, Kia and Genesis. Honda includes Honda and Acura. VW includes Volkswagen, Porsche and Audi. These are the car models that Americans keep the longest.

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