Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have more than doubled in the past quarter alone, and analysts are trying to catch up. Some analysts believe that Tesla has overshot most price targets and shares should be pulling back. In fact, a flurry of analysts came out in defense of this position on Thursday.
Robert W. Baird downgraded Tesla to a Neutral rating from Outperform, though it also handily raised its target price to $525 from $355 in the call. While the downgrade came with a serious target price hike, the analyst called this report a tactical downgrade to lock in profits after such a large gain (over 100% in just six months) and said that there is still a long-term growth story here.
Baird’s Ben Kallo referred to the downgraded being from “plaid mode,” in a “Spaceballs” movie reference, as Musk likes that analogy for his speeds. The downgrade is tactical and still comes with a long-term upside belief here. It’s time to take profits per the report, after a mega surge in the stock as the current estimates appear to be “properly calibrated” and the valuation appears to be more balanced.
CFRA also downgraded Tesla to Sell from Hold but kept its $400 target price static, as it sees its value at 36 times 2021 expected earnings, with its shares now appearing to be fully valued after a strong run, despite numerous near-term risks.
According to CFRA:
In our view, Tesla shares now appear fully valued after a meteoric run-up since bottoming at $177/share last June and are not reflecting various near-term risks. We see the recent China factory start-up weighing on Automotive gross margins in the first half of 2020 and U.S. sales being negatively impacted by the recent phase-out of its federal EV tax credit, rising competition and seasonality. We expect Tesla to break ground on its new factory in Germany soon and for project capex (likely $4B-$5B) to weigh on free cash flow in the coming quarters. We also see heightened risk of equity issuance, which would help de-risk the balance sheet but be dilutive to EPS. With Tesla’s market cap now exceeding GM and Ford combined despite having only about 3% of joint vehicle sales volume, we think investors have given Tesla plenty of credit for future growth, raising execution risk.
Overall, Tesla has outperformed the broad markets, with its stock up about 47% in the past 52 weeks. In the past six months, the stock is up closer to 106%.
Shares of Tesla traded at $492.04 on Thursday, in a 52-week range of $176.99 to $498.80. The consensus price target is $315.00.
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