Cars and Drivers

Is Harley-Davidson in Trouble After Q4?

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When Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) released its most recent quarterly results before the markets opened on Tuesday, the motorcycle company posted $0.20 in earnings per share (EPS) and $874.1 million in revenue. The consensus estimates had called for $0.09 in EPS and $920.14 million in revenue. The same period of last year reportedly had $0.17 in EPS and $955.63 million in revenue.

U.S. retail sales rate declines continued to temper. The year-over-year retail sales rate of decline in the fourth quarter was the lowest in 12 quarters and the full-year retail sales rate of decline was the lowest since 2016.

International retail sales were up slightly in the fourth quarter behind continued growth in emerging markets. Full-year international retail sales finished down 3.0%.

In terms of its segments, the company reported as follows:

  • Motorcycles revenues decreased 9.7% year over year to $666.3 million. During the quarter, 40,454 motorcycles were shipped.
  • Parts & Accessories revenue decreased 9.1% to $129.3 million.
  • General Merchandise revenue decreased 2.2% to $57.2 million.

Harley-Davidson issued guidance for the 2020 full year and the first quarter. The company expects to see Motorcycle segment revenue to be in the range of $1.09 billion to $1.17 billion for the first quarter and $4.53 billion to $4.66 billion for the full year. Consensus estimates are calling for $0.95 in EPS and $1.21 billion in revenue for the first quarter and $3.44 in EPS and $4.65 billion in revenue for the full year.

Matt Levatich, president and CEO of Harley-Davidson, commented:

Our performance in Q4 and the full year was in line with our expectations and indicative of increased business stability driven by the tremendous efforts of our employees and dealers. In 2019, we took important steps toward returning to significant growth in 2021 – including launching LiveWire, our first electric motorcycle, optimizing our global dealer network and expanding our international footprint.

Shares of Harley-Davidson were last seen down nearly 4% at $33.50, in a 52-week range of $30.17 to $41.40. The consensus price target is $38.17.


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