The stock of Ford Motor Company recently posted an unprecedented surge. It rose from $7 two years ago to over $25 early this year. It has collapsed 45% so far this year to just over $11. The company’s prospects are not that grim.
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Some concerns about Ford are reasonable. It cannot build as many cars as management would like, which puts it in the same position as every major car company in the world. Parts shortages have nearly closed parts of the supply chain. Car companies cannot post strong revenue when there are no cars to sell. The other side of that equation is that unfulfilled demand has risen. Will a recession dampen that demand? Probably. But it will not disappear.

Ford has taken the lead in the electric pickup market. That cannot be underestimated. The three top-selling vehicles each year are full-sized pickups. The Ford F-series tops this list, which also includes the Dodge Ram and Chevy Silverado. Ford has millions of F-series pickups in owners’ hands. This means the universe of available owners for an electric pickup cannot be matched. The Ford F-150 Lightning became available for delivery just weeks ago. Sales will be dampened only by a lack of supply. That is a problem, but it is one other electric pickup manufacturers would love to have.

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Ford’s multibillion-dollar investments in electric and autonomous vehicles give it every chance to lead these markets in the next decade. One argument about Ford’s near-term prospects is that a recession will make these difficult to sell over the next two years. This will undermine demand. However, electric vehicle supply likely will be low. There are too few manufacturers in the market to meet even dampened demand.

Ford’s stock is too cheap. It has been pushed down largely by the market sell-off. That sell-off is not enough to justify the Ford share price collapse.

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