Ford’s F-150 Lightning finally has real competition. Tesla has started to produce its Cybertruck. Which is the better pickup? Several “tests” show that it is yet to be determined. (These are the 15 most fuel-efficient new trucks.)
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Ford has set an annual Lightning production pace of 150,000 by year’s end. However, it sold only 4,466 in the second quarter. That may be an issue of supply. The Cybertruck’s production is at least two years behind expectations. As production ramps up at Tesla, it is too early to say how much that will affect sales. Founder Elon Musk wants to press production to 250,000 units a year.
Who has the marketing advantage? Ford has an installed base of millions of gasoline-powered F-150 pickups, This is a ready-made market for Lightning sales. Ford also has a huge dealer network. Musk says dealer networks are not essential to sales and service. Many customers, used to working with dealerships, may not take that to heart.
The Cybertruck will benefit from Tesla’s mystique. Tesla has a reputation as the most advanced car company in the world and for making the most advanced products. One study has put Tesla’s brand value at $66 billion, at the top of the industry. Ford ranks in eighth place with a brand value of $22 billion, slightly behind smaller Honda.
Tesla’s market cap, a proxy for sales and profitability, is $892 billion. Ford’s is $60 billion. Tesla’s market value is up 165% this year, and Ford’s is 28% higher. While these are not a proxy for pickup sales, they are a proxy of what Wall Street believes will be the long-term unit sales as the global electric vehicle market overtakes the one for gasoline-powered vehicles.
When both the Cybertruck and the Lightning hit full potential production levels, it will become clearer which will do better. Inventory will be one measure. The price each can fetch will be another.
One certain thing is that Ford finally has competition.
UPDATE: Note that Ford has just announced price cuts of at least $6,000 on Lightning models.
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