Casinos & Hotels

Why One Analyst Sees Casinos With Nearly 30% Upside

Is Wall Street no different from gambling at a casino? The answer almost certainly depends on whom you ask. Still, Wall Street analysts and investors often follow the parents of the largest casinos out there. Now a new research report from Brean Capital has issued positive Buy ratings on four of the top casino operators.

What should stand out in these new Buy ratings is that casino stocks have by and large sold off handily from their 52-week highs. The other issue is that the upside price targets are handily more than the 8% or so upside you might expect to see if these reports were covering Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. The average is nearly 30% upside, if you include the dividends, and that is after these stocks have rallied on the reports.

Brean Capital’s four top casinos in the report were in shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS), Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL), MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN). The driving force behind these aggressive upside price targets was Macau. Many casino stocks are down handily from their highs over concerns about how they will grow above and beyond what has been seen to date from Macau, Las Vegas and elsewhere.

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Brean believes that the bottom may be in for the casino stocks. The report talked about new properties opening soon, a shortage of rooms and the Macau corruption crackdown being widely factored in now. Las Vegas Sands was called the best positioned, while MGM was said to be the least exposed to Macau.

These are the four new Buy ratings highlighted at Brean Capital on Thursday.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) has a consensus analyst target price of $61.67. Its absolute highest analyst target price is up at $72. With a $55.50 share price, after a 2.5% gain on Thursday, the upside to Brean’s $65 target would be about 17% — or closer to 21% if you count the dividend yield of over 4%. The stock’s 52-week range is $49.82 to $84.24, and its consensus estimates value it at less than 18 times expected 2015 earnings.

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) was given the same Buy rating at Brean Capital, but the price target in the call was all the way up at $31. That is $3 higher than the consensus price target of $28, but the highest analyst price target is $36. If Brean’s call turns out to be accurate, even after a 5% gain to $23.00 on Thursday, then the upside to their target is nearly 35%. Melco Crown’s 52-week trading range is $20.40 to $41.55. Melco Crown’s consensus targets value it at about 23 times expected 2015 earnings.

MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) was started with a Buy rating and a price target of $27 on Thursday morning. The consensus analyst price target is $26.32, and the highest analyst target price is $30. After a 1% gain to $22.75 on Thursday, this would leave implied upside of almost 18%. That is pretty close to the consensus target, but the 52-week trading range is $17.25 to $27.64. MGM is currently valued at close to 50 times expected 2015 earnings.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) was started as Buy and was given a $174 price target. Brean is above the consensus price target of almost $163, and the highest analyst target is up at $195. The implied upside to the Brean Capital target price, after a 4% gain to $128.00 on Thursday, is close to 36% — or just over 40% if you include the latest dividend on an annualized basis. Wynn shares are also barely off of 52-week lows and way down from the 52-week high. Shares were at $122.92 prior to the call, and the 52-week range is $121.53 to $231.95. Wynn is valued at about 21 times expected 2015 earnings.

Gambling, or investing, in casino stocks can be much more volatile than the broader market in general. That being said, many of these stocks have pulled handily back from their 52-week highs.

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