Goldman Sachs on Steel & Metals in 2008 (NUE, ZEUS, RS, ATI, X, SCHN, AKS)

Goldman Sachs is out with a call covering the steel stocks.  We’ll be keeping this one shortened to keep it in a summary format.  Goldman is noting that US STEEL PRICES ARE SET TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2008.  It notes a short squeeze that should more than offset recessionary demand trends.  It also notes a trend in mini-mills where they will see higher scrap price costs in the near-term but will have wider margins later in 2008 and 2009.  Goldman also believes the integrated steel companies will see margin increases on an immediate basis.

Below are the stock calls seen in the steel and related sector:

• Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) is its Top Pick in the sector;
• and that is followed by Olympic Steel (NASDAQ: ZUES) and Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) as Buy ratings;
• it also has Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) as Neutral ratings;
• Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN) was downgraded to the loathed SELL rating from an already lackluster Neutral rating.  It sees a 15% downside to its new price target of $47.00 as the premium to peers is unwarranted.
• AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) is being removed from The Americas SellList and therefore being raised to a Neutral rating.  Its 2008estimates are being hiked to $4.25 from $3.30 and the 2009 estimatesare being raised to $3.85 from $3.35. 

Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2008