Commodities & Metals
Goldman Sachs Hints At $1,000 Gold Potential & Weaker Dollar (ABX, GLD, NEM, AU, BVN, GFI, FCX)
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Goldman Sachs is RAISING ITS 2008 GOLD FORECASTS factoring for a recession in the U.S. in both Q2 and Q3 2008, leading to a weaker U.S. Dollar target of $1.51/Euro (up from $1.35) over the next six months. The prior $800/ounce gold target is now put at an average of $915/ounce for all of 2008, with an exit 2008 commodity price of $850 (up from $825 prior). The call is based on support from investment demand, purchases from emerging market central banks, and the ongoing declining mine supplies. Goldman Sachs is also raising its 2009 and 2010 gold prices:
Near-term Goldman Sachs notes a possibility of a spike past $1,000.00 that could be the effect of further credit events and increases in oil prices.
Below is a summary of some of the equity calls from Goldman Sachs on its gold stock sector coverage:
Traders can also look at the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) as the ETN (ETF) in the sector. It trades at roughly one-tenth the price of gold bullion after trust expenses and fees.
Many traders thought that first $100 OIL super-spike price wasridiculous at the time, but then as prices soared and all of a suddenthe hiked and raised $135 OIL super-spike price didn’t get as muchcriticism. For inflation’s sake, let’s hope Goldman Sachs proprietarytraders don’t go out on a massive buying spree.
Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2008
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