Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List Changes In Gold Sector (ABX, FCX)

Commodities & Metals

Published: January 31, 2008 7:56 am

Goldman Sachs is making a key change in the gold sector this morning. The investment banking giant is adding Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) to the Americas Conviction Buy List. This stock is replacing Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) on the Americas Conviction Buy List.

FCX is noted as being down over 15% year to date and being inexpensive based on a 49% upside from current prices to Goldman’s 12-month $129.00 price target. Its leverage in copper is perhaps one of the more favorable issues according to the note, and Goldman notes that it believes copper consumption will be least affected of the base metals in a Western economic slowdown.

Barrick’s removal from the Americas Conviction Buy List comes on the heels of strong performance, which is actually up 29% since being added to the list on November 27, 2007. Barrick is also up some 90% since April 2006 when it was first given a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs is still maintaining its official Buy rating on Barrick along with a $66 price target. The firm believes this was the beneficiary of higher gold prices over $900/ounce as the stock outperformed mining and metals peers. It also believes this is a top gold investment vehicle.

This call looks more like a relative value call based upon performance and value, and it could even be an implied pairs trade in the sector to some.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008

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