Something Brewing At Mosaic? (MOS, AGU, CF, TRA)

Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was lost in the financial shuffle today.  Perhaps it should not have been.  The stock rose up 8.5% at $43.05 today on more than double the normal volume.  Options were extremely active too.

There is now a merger trifecta in the ag-fertilizer space.  Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is involved in an offer for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) and interestingly enough, CF had itself launched a $2.1 billion hostile bid Terra Industries, Inc. (NYSE: TRA).

So we do not know if the pre-weekend traders were looking for related sector plays or if this was different speculation.  Here is the options movement for March, meaning that the expectation (if there is an expectation) is for an event to occur soon:

STRIKE    Volume    Op.Int.
$45.00    16,592    24,338
$50.00    7,263    16,597
$55.00    4,888    13,857

Shares closed up 8.5% at $43.05 and its 52-week trading range is $21.94 to $163.25.

Jon C. Ogg