Gold Mining Earnings Shine, But Less Than Gold Itself (ABX, GG, GLD, GDX, GDXJ)

Commodities & Metals

Published: July 28, 2011 9:40 am

Senior gold miners Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) reported earnings this morning, and the reports varied by enough to cause some wonder, if not concern, about gold miners’ shares going into the second half of the year.

Barrick reported adjusted EPS of $1.12, compared with estimates of $1.08. Revenues totaled $3.43 billion, well ahead of a consensus estimate of $3.32 billion. The surging earnings and revenues were largely attributed to rising bullion prices.

Goldcorp reported adjusted EPS of $0.52, exactly on target with estimates. Revenues rose 60% year-over-year to $1.32 billion, but analysts were expecting revenue of $1.4 billion. The company faced some operational issues, including a forest fire in Canada which forced the temporary closure of a mine, that weighed on revenues.

At Barrick, the company produced 1.98 million ounces of gold at a total cash cost of $445/ounce, among the lowest for the senior miners. The company expects to meet its earlier full-year target of 7.6-8 million ounces of gold produced at a total cash cost of $450-$480/ounce.

Barrick said that cash margins on gold increased to $1,068/ounce, up 33% from $804/ounce in the same period a year ago. Cash margins for copper rose 39% year-over-year, from $1.80/pound to $2.51/pound. Barrick sold 82 million pounds of copper in the quarter, which works out to $205 million in operating income.

Year-over-year, Goldcorp more than doubled adjusted EPS. The company reported co-product cash costs of $553/ounce and a by-product cash cost of $185/ounce. On a by-product basis, Goldcorp reported a margin/gold ounce of $1,331.

The company lowered its guidance for total 2011 production from 2.65-2.75 million ounces to 2.5-2.55 million ounces. The by-product cash cost is expected to be $180-$220/ounce of gold, significantly less than earlier guidance of $280-$320/ounce. Co-product cash costs are predicted to rise however, from $475-$500/ounce to $500-$550/ounce.

Keeping cash costs under control has been the key metric for gold miners. Thus, even though these earnings reports are good, the rising costs will keep share prices from rising in step with the price of gold. It may not be fair, but that’s life.

Gold prices are flat this morning at about $1,616/ounce, as investors wait to see what will happen next in the debate over raising the US debt ceiling. Barrick is trading down about -1.6% at market open this morning and Goldcorp is down more than -3%. Barrick’s 52-week trading range is $39.67-$55.74. Goldcorp’s 52-week range is $38.36-$56.20.

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is up slightly before the market opens this morning, and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is down about -1%. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is also down by about -0.5%.

Paul Ausick

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