The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) now estimates that the U.S. corn crop will fall by another 100 million bushels below the estimate provided just a month ago, to 10.7 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006.
The U.S. soybean crop estimate dropped by 70 million bushels, to 2.63 million bushels. The yield estimate for soybeans fell to 35.3 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month’s estimate, and 6.2 bushels per acre from last year’s actual yield.
The corn crop yield is now projected at 122.8 bushels per acre, down from last month’s estimate of 123.4 bushels per acre. The original estimate called for a yield of 166 bushels per acre. The current estimate would be the lowest corn crop yield since 1995.
The new forecast is not as bad as many analysts had expected. Corn yields were expected to drop to 120.6 bushels per acre, so the USDA’s yield estimate came in slightly better than that. The higher-than-expected yield does not mean things are better, just different. One commodities trader told MarketWatch, “You’re pulling some of the worst corn out of the average.” That is, the worst fields have already been abandoned and the crop cut into livestock feed.
Corn futures fell to $7.66 per bushel, the lowest level in nearly two months. Soybean contracts rose 2.8% to $17.49 per bushel and wheat fell 0.5% to $8.80 per bushel.
The Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEMKT: CORN) is down about 1% at $49.50 in a 52-week range of $35.23-$52.71.
The Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSEMKT: SOYB) is up 2.6% at $28.39 (a new 52-week high) in a previous 52-week range of $18.27 to $28.88.
Paul Ausick
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