Commodities & Metals

Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season with a Thud

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has just kicked off earnings season for the companies reporting their first quarter earnings this April. The aluminum giant usually holds off on formal guidance until its conference call, so the report may seem incomplete until that is offered up. While Alcoa is said to be a harbinger of earnings season, today’s news was mixed and we would consider this report somewhere between a thud and a whisper rather than offering true direction.

The aluminum giant reported earnings of $0.13 EPS net and $0.11 EPS on an adjusted basis, above the most recent Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.08 EPS on an adjusted basis. This is even above the estimate of $0.10 EPS (adjusted basis) from last week before it was taken down by analysts. Revenue for the first quarter was $5.83 billion, while the consensus was about $5.88 billion. Sequentially, that revenue is down 1% and it is down 3% year over year.

CEO Klaus Kleinfeld has just tried to sell the positive case for the company calling it a good and solid quarter. He also talked about creating value and making the upstream business better. The company ended the quarter with $1.6 billion.

Alcoa continues to project 7% global aluminum demand growth in 2013 along with essentially balanced alumina and aluminum markets. The aluminum giant also believes that 2013 will continue to be a slightly tighter market as the supply contracts. Alcoa reduced its surplus projection for aluminum from 535,000 metric tons in the fourth quarter to 155,000 metric tons this quarter based upon curtailments. Individual growth projections are as follows:

  • aerospace 9% to 10%
  • automotive 1% to 4%
  • commercial transportation 2% to 7%
  • packaging 2% to 3%
  • building and construction 4% to 5%
  • and industrial gas turbine 3% to 5%.

As a reminder for guidance ahead, the Thomson Reuters consensus targets for the second quarter are $0.14 EPS and $6.23 billion in revenue. For all of 2013, the consensus estimates are $0.53 EPS and $24.4 billion. Alcoa trades at about 15-times this year’s earnings estimates and just under 10-times the expected 2014 earnings estimates.

Alcoa shares closed up 1.8% at $8.39 and the shares are still looking for direction after earnings.

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