Commodities & Metals

Peabody Earnings Weighed Down by Outlook

coal train
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Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 results before markets opened Thursday. For the quarter, the coal miner reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.00 on revenues of $1.74 billion. In the same period a year ago, Peabody reported an EPS loss of $1.12 on revenues of $2.02 billion. The consensus estimates called for an EPS loss of $0.10 on revenues of $1.77 billion.

For the full year, the coal company posted EPS of $0.34 on revenues of $7.01 billion, compared with 2012 revenues of $8.08 billion and EPS of $0.84. The consensus estimate called for 2013 EPS of $0.24 on revenues of $7.03 billion.

Peabody noted an annual decline of 22% in Australian coal pricing last year and a 6% rise in shipments. U.S. revenues and shipments both fell by 4% last year. Peabody was able to cut its costs by $340 million in Australia last year, but that only partly offset the nearly $800 million in lower Australian revenues.

The company reported a 2013 loss from continuing operations of $286 million ($1.12 per share), significantly lower than 2012’s loss of $470.9 million. A pretax asset impairment charge of $528.3 million ($1.56 per share) did most of the damage.

Looking ahead, Peabody projects U.S. demand for coal for the full year will rise by 45 million to 55 million tons above 2012 levels. That is down from last quarter’s projection for an increase of 50 million to 70 million tons. Year-to-date shipments are down 20 million tons compared with 2012, but demand has increased as natural gas prices rise and electricity generation plants switch from gas to coal.

The company’s CEO said:

We look for continued record coal use in 2014 as developing nations increase coal imports and developed nations capitalize on coal’s cost and reliability advantage over natural gas and renewables. Seaborne thermal and metallurgical coal demand reached a record 1.25 billion tonnes in 2013, and coal demand growth is expected to exceed supply increases, leading to improved fundamentals as the year proceeds.

The expected increase in demand will ignite more production, which is likely to put downward pressure on prices. Coal miners look to be headed for more rough sledding ahead.

For the first quarter of 2014, the company expects EPS in the range of a loss of $0.10 to a profit of $0.14. The consensus estimate calls for an EPS loss of $0.04 on revenues of $1.78 billion.

For the full year, Peabody did not forecast earnings or revenues. The company expects sales to total 245 million to 265 million tons. The mid-point of that range is slightly higher than 2013 sales of 251.7 million tons. The consensus full-year estimates call for EPS of $0.32 on sales of $7.55 billion.

Shares were down about 1.1% in premarket trading Thursday, at $17.20 in a 52-week range of $14.34 to $25.48. Prior to this release, Thomson/Reuters had a consensus price target of around $23.65 on the company’s shares.

 

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