The price of gold has dropped more than $100 an ounce over the past 12 months from a high near $1,390 to around $1,207 at noon on Friday. That is virtually identical with the $1,210 per ounce price in mid-December when we last looked at the mining stocks.

Since then we have had quarterly and full-year earnings from the big mining companies, and now may be a good time to see if anything has changed in the outlook for gold. First of all, the Federal Reserve does not appear to be ready to raise its policy rate from near zero at least for a few more months. This is a minus for gold and a plus for equities. Second, the dollar continues to get stronger, another plus for equities and a minus for gold (and crude oil or any other commodity priced in dollars).

Third, the gold supply in 2014 was essentially flat with 2013. Mine production reached a record level in 2014 according to the World Gold Council, but that was countered by a decline in recycling, which fell to a seven-year low.

Fourth, total demand for gold fell from 4,088 metric tons (tonnes) in 2013 to 3,923.7 tonnes in 2014. Central banks purchased more gold in 2014 and demand from investors improved by 2%. The sharp rise in outflows from exchange traded products (ETPs) in 2013 slowed dramatically in 2014, from 880.0 tonnes to 159.1 tonnes.

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What this all adds up to is a near equilibrium between supply and demand, and that indicates that something exogenous is going to be the driver of gold prices in 2015. The most likely suspect is the Fed — no matter whether it waits to raise rates or jumps in right away, the impact on gold demand will be essentially instant and exuberant.

Here is how the miners look after reporting earnings.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) forecast 2015 gold production in a range of 6.2 million to 6.6 million ounces, compared with 2014 production of 6.24 million ounces. Costs were down compared with 2013, but they are projected to be roughly the same or a little higher in 2015. Barrick’s average price received in 2014 was $1,266 per ounce and the company estimated a 2015 average of $1,250. To sum it up, Barrick expects to do no worse in 2015 than it did in 2014. Based on a consensus price target of $13.41 and a closing price on Thursday night of $12.82, the implied gain is around 4.6%. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.80.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) disappointed investors when it posted lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.07 on Thursday. The company took a $2.3 billion write-down on its Cerro Negro mine in Argentina (smaller than the $2.85 billion Barrick wrote down). Goldcorp produced a record 890,900 ounces of gold, but costs climbed from $810 in 2013 to $1,035 last year. The company expects both production and cash flow to rise in 2015, while costs decline to a range of $875 to $950 an ounce. Goldcorp’s average realized price for an ounce of gold in the fourth quarter was $1,203. The company’s consensus price target is $26.29 and shares closed at $21.36 on Thursday, for an implied gain of 23%. The stock’s forward P/E ratio is 22.53.

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Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) also reported results on Thursday, and its outlook for production, prices and costs is in the same ballpark as the projections from Barrick and Goldcorp. Newmont produced 4.85 million ounces of gold in 2014 and forecast production of 4.6 million to 4.9 million ounces in 2015. Gold prices were 10% lower in 2014 than in 2013, and Newmont did not provide a price estimate for 2015. Costs are forecast to fall to a lower range, but the upper end of the projected 2015 range is higher than the upper end of the 2014 range. The company’s consensus price target is $23.79, but shares closed at $24.46 on Thursday. The stock’s forward P/E ratio is 20.13.

Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) reported earnings a couple of weeks ago and said that the company’s production rose to 1.5 million ounces of gold last year. The average price received in 2014 was $1,264 an ounce, and the average cash cost per ounce was $698. Analysts at UBS and Deutsche Bank have recently dropped Randgold’s shares to Neutral or Hold, saying that unless the price of gold rises the company’s growth has hit a wall after strong growth in 2014. The company’s consensus price target is $92.81, and shares closed at $76.90 on Thursday for an implied gain of more than 20%. The stock’s forward P/E ratio is 23.44.

Newmont’s stock is more than fully valued, Barrick’s carries a potential upside of less than 5%, and Randgold has been hit by recent downgrades. The last man standing is Goldcorp, with a potential upside of 23% and a forward P/E of 22.53. As noted, though, the price of gold will drive the stock price for each of these companies.

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