What to Expect From Alcoa Earnings

Commodities & Metals

Published: April 8, 2015 9:25 am

Last Updated: March 13, 2020 10:06 pm

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is set to report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the markets close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.25 in earnings per share (EPS) on $5.95 billion in revenue. In the same quarter from the previous year, Alcoa posted $0.09 in EPS on $5.45 billion.

Investors should take a close look at Alcoa. The reason is that its chart has not caught up with the steel stocks — in the sense that it has not acted yet as though it is finding a bottom. That being said, this former Dow Jones Industrial Average component’s shares are now barely $1 above their 52-week low. That alone is not good by any means. Still, it is no secret that some investors consider stocks at or drifting toward 52-week lows as candidates for potential turnaround stocks. Again, “potential” turnarounds. At least Alcoa is making diversifying acquisitions to broaden its model.

Earlier in March, Alcoa announced that it would acquire RTI International Metals Inc. (NYSE: RTI) in deal that values RTI at $1.5 billion, including debt. The goal of this transaction is to not only grow Alcoa’s advanced technologies for more strength in its innovative power, but also to broaden its multi-material product suite.

Under the terms of the agreement, Alcoa will acquire RTI in a stock-for-stock transaction. RTI shareholders will receive 2.8315 Alcoa shares for each RTI share, representing a value of $41 per RTI share, based on Alcoa’s closing price on March 6, 2015.

ALSO READ: 6 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Ahead of Earnings

Also in the weeks prior to the earnings release, a few analysts weighed in on the aluminum giant:

Sanford C. Bernstein maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $22.
J.P. Morgan maintained a Hold rating and lowered its price target to $16.50 from $18.50.
Zacks reiterated a Hold rating with a price target of $17.

The highest price target from analysts is $23, implying an upside of 71% from current prices.

Alcoa was the top metals and material pick from the Goldman Sachs cheapest stocks list. At current prices, it is important to know that Alcoa shares have been pounded and are barely $1 above their 52-week low ahead of earnings. Goldman Sachs’ upside of 39.3% was based on a $12.92 share price on March 31, so the current share price implies upside to its $18 target price would leave over 30% upside now.

Shares of Alcoa were up 1.6% at $13.64 in premarket trading Wednesday. The consensus price target is $18.25, and the stock has a 52-week trading range of $12.34 to $17.75.

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