Commodities & Metals
Will Alcoa Be an Earnings Season Barometer This Time?
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Earnings season is coming, and kicking it off is Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA). This aluminum giant is seen by some investors as a barometer for the market going into earnings season. However, a majority would disagree and look for other stocks that are more highly correlated with the broad markets.
A few examples of more highly correlated companies would be: Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), 3M Company (NYSE: MMM) and United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX).
Alcoa is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results after the markets close Wednesday. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $0.23 in earnings per share (EPS) on $5.79 billion in revenue. In the same period of last year, the company posted EPS of $0.18 and revenue of $5.84 billion.
Falling aluminum prices over the past year have absolutely demolished Alcoa stock. In fact, shares have dropped more than 30% year to date.
There is no doubt that Alcoa is in desperate need of a turnaround. Recently shares have crept lower and lower on the year, after exploding in 2014. At this point Alcoa is trying new things to boost shares and broaden its business. The next frontier the company is looking to expand into is 3D printing jet engine parts.
However, the miners are all struggling with falling prices for the commodity, and the continuing high export levels from China are getting the blame. Other factors affecting the price are weak demand and abundant supply from Noranda, Alcoa and the rest. Even Rusal, the Russian aluminum colossus, is feeling the effect of Chinese exports.
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Ahead of earnings a few analysts weighed in on this aluminum giant:
- Sterne Agee CRT reiterated a Neutral rating with a $12 price target.
- Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $16 from $19.
- Macquarie has a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $12 from $13.
- Stifel reiterated a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $18 from $19.
- Morgan Stanley has a Buy rating and a $16 price target.
Shares of Alcoa hit a new 52-week low of $10.59 on Wednesday morning. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $15.37 and a 52-week high of $17.75.
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