Commodities & Metals

Could Cliffs Really Still Be Worth Twice as Much?

Whenever you hear someone issue a price target calling for a stock to double, or higher, it generally makes many investors turn their head. The more down to earth caveat here is that it better make investors realize just how risky that company is. In the case of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF), hearing that the stock could ultimately be worth twice as much is not really a new event even if it has shares higher.

Investors have suffered endless losses and faced endless disappointment when it comes to Cliffs Natural Resources. Shares also recently hit yet another one of its many 52-week lows. While there may be one positive sounding call here, investors should know that there are many negative calls here as well.

RBC Capital Markets has maintained its $6.00 price target on Cliffs, less than a week ahead of the company’s earnings report. Before you think of this as an instant double, RBC did warn that it expects a sequentially weaker quarter. Weaker iron ore prices and higher costs are to blame here. Still, RBC is expecting that management will continue to remove leverage from the balance sheet.

Another issue in this $6.00 price target is that RBC has only a Sector Perform rating. Cliffs has just been one of those companies where analysts have had a hard time lowering their price targets fast enough while Cliffs shares have done nothing but fall month after month.

24/7 Wall St. never likes to show the upside alone in what is obviously a very risky company. RBC previously had a $7.50 target on Cliffs prior to April.

The reality is that Cliffs has had to deal with lower spot iron ore pricing and lower steel pricing. It also has contract risks ahead. Guess what that does for future earnings lower.

Standard & Poor’s raised its rating to Sell from Strong Sell in mid-July and maintained its $3.50 price target. Ask yourself this — Does a “Sell” rating sound that big, even it was an upgrade?

Earlier this week, BofA Merrill Lynch noted that Cliffs had an Underperform rating and a $3.00 price objective. That was when shares were at $3.04, in a broader report on metals likely having a sector theme of under-promising and under-delivering on earnings.

Credit Suisse also has a Underperform rating and a $1.00 price target.

Wells Fargo had an Underperform rating on Cliffs early in 2014, with a fair value range of $1.00 to $3.00 in their calls. That was true even when shares were at $6.80. In fact, if you only read Wells Fargo’s reports then you might be convinced that Cliffs is a going concern which might not be around as it exists now in the years ahead.

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As far as the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates are concerned, the average price target (mean) is $4.64 and the median target is $3.00. Needless to say, a $6.00 price target just seems very optimistic even if it is not quite the highest official price target.

Cliffs Natural shares were up 4% at $2.58 late on Thursday. Its 52-week range is $2.28 to $18.41. That recent 52-week low looks more like a decade low.

 

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