Is This the Long-Awaited Turnaround at Cliffs Natural Resources?

Commodities & Metals

Published: October 29, 2015 11:35 am

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) reported third-quarter 2015 results before markets opened Thursday. The iron ore and coal miner posted a net loss per share of $0.10 on revenues of $593 million. In the same period a year ago, the company reported a loss per share from continuing operations of $38.49 on revenues of $980 million. The consensus estimate called for a net loss of $0.23 per share on revenues of $591.97 million.

Overall, Cliffs reported net profit of $10.6 million, compared with a year-earlier loss of $5.89 billion. The company posted earnings per share of $0.19 from continuing operations in the third quarter, compared with a loss of $1.89 in the third quarter of 2015.

CEO Lourenco Goncalves said:

Our performance this past quarter illustrates how far we have come in our turnaround story. We have been able to deliver significant cost reductions in all areas of the business through disciplined execution of the strategy instituted last year. We expect the domestic steel market to improve in 2016 as trade actions reduce the pressure of imports and firm up steel pricing. Our solid cost position coupled with stronger demand from the mills should drive better profitability for Cliffs.

Cliffs has increased its revenues-per-ton expectations for U.S. iron ore. At a fourth-quarter Platts IODEX assumption of $55 to $60 per ton, the full-year expected range of price realizations has increased from the previous expectation of $75 to $80 per ton to $80 to $85 per ton. Realization estimates in Asia Pacific have not changed significantly from a discount of $15 to $20 a ton to the U.S. iron ore price.

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For the full 2015 fiscal year, the company is lowering U.S. sales volumes expectations by 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million tons of iron ore pellets. The cash production cost per ton is being maintained at $55 to $60 and the cash cost of goods sold per ton remains at $60 to $65.

The company is raising it sales volume estimate in Asia Pacific from 11 million tons to 11.5 million tons. Cash production costs and cash cost of goods sold costs remain unchanged at $30 to $35 and $35 to $40, respectively.

Cliffs is also lowering its estimated fiscal year capex from a prior range of $100 million to $125 million to a new range of $85 million to $95 million.

Cost cutting and asset sales in the first quarter have given the company a decent footing going forward. Cliffs’ forecast that 2016 holds out hope for improved pricing is the point on which the company’s turnaround rests. Cliffs has done a lot to stop its collapse; now it just needs some help from the market.

Shares traded up about 6% late Thursday morning, at $2.80 in a 52-week range of $2.28 to $11.70, and the consensus target price is $3.11.

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