Commodities & Metals

Today's Top Gold Miner Is Barrick; Which Will It Be Tomorrow?

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Shares of Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) added around 10% last week to push the company to the top of league table for gold miners. It might be what is often referred to as the best house in a lousy neighborhood.

For the first couple of weeks of 2016, Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) are the only two gold mining stocks that have posted gains, and those gains amount to around 2.3% and 0.5%, respectively. In the past five years, Barrick has dropped nearly 85% of its market cap and Agnico Eagle has dropped nearly two-thirds of its. Looking at the top five as measured by market cap, all five are playing in the same ballpark: Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is down nearly 75%, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) is down more than 75% and Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) is down more than 90%.

And the outlook for 2016 is appears to be liberally sprinkled with optimism. Barrick closed at $7.90 last Friday, in a 52-week trading range of $5.91 to $13.70. Analysts are estimating full-year 2015 earnings per share (EPS) at $0.30, less than half of 2014 EPS of $0.68. The current estimate for 2016 calls for EPS of $0.42, and the company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.96. The consensus price target is $9.56, and the implied share price gain is 21%.

Agnico Eagle stock closed at $28.01 on Friday, in a 52-week range of $21.00 to $34.89. The consensus EPS estimate for 2015 is $0.46, compared with $0.99 in 2014. The 2016 estimate calls for EPS of $0.30 and the forward P/E ratio is 87.98. The consensus price target on the stock is $33.27, and the potential upside is about 19%.


Newmont Mining shares closed at $17.27 on Friday, and the stock’s 52-week range is $15.39 to $27.90. The consensus earnings estimate for 2015 is $1.11 per share, actually a small improvement over 2014 EPS of $1.09. The 2016 estimate calls for EPS of $0.68 and the forward P/E ratio is 24.06. The implied gain on the stock is 34%, based on Friday’s closing price and a consensus price target of $23.15.

Goldcorp closed at $10.32 on Friday in a 52-week range of $10.20 to $25.00 (shares posted a new low of $9.74 on Tuesday). The consensus 2015 EPS estimate is $0.08 and the 2016 estimate calls for EPS of $0.15. The forward P/E ratio is a stout 66.53, and consensus price target is $17.75. At Friday’s closing price, the potential upside for the stock is 74%.

Kinross closed at $1.48 on Friday, a 52-week low, compared to a 52-week high $3.71. The stock posted another new low Tuesday at $1.31. Kinross is expected to post a net loss of $0.06 per share in 2015, compared with EPS of $0.11 in 2014. For 2016 analysts are looking for net loss of $0.07 per share. Analysts have consensus price target of $2.43 on the stock, and at Friday’s closing price the implied upside is just over 64%.

Gold traders are buoyed by the overall 2.9% rise in gold prices for the first couple of weeks of 2016. But the miners need to have bullion prices go up further, and faster, if they are to see any benefit. No one seems to be expecting that to happen any time soon.

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