Are Analysts Bailing Out on US Steel at the Bottom?

Commodities & Metals

Published: January 30, 2016 10:05 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 1:53 pm

When United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) reported fourth-quarter and full-year results last Tuesday, shares took a beating, following a quarterly net loss of $999 million due primarily to a glut of global steel production and a concomitant decline in demand. U.S. Steel called the current steel environment “some of the worst market and business conditions we have seen.”

It’s pretty hard to argue with that. The (somewhat) better news is that supply cuts may soon be marking a bottom in the cycle as a trade-related supply cut reduces the flood of imported steel into the domestic market.

As far as U.S. Steel is concerned, though, analysts are wary that a turnaround is in the offing. The company expects 2016 adjusted EBITDA to be no better than break-even. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts certainly weren’t impressed, reiterating their Underperform rating and cutting the price target on the stock from $3 to $1 a share.

Other analysts mostly shared that view. S&P Capital IQ lowered its 12-month price target from $11 to $6 a share. The analysts expect a 2016 per share loss in the range of $2.10 to $2.20 and a further loss of $0.50 for 2017. S&P offers a bit of detail: “In our view, [U.S. Steel] is making progress reducing costs, but we are concerned about [U.S. Steel] being over-indexed to oil & gas drilling and we note high supply chain inventories.”

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Other recent ratings or price target changes include:

Argus cuts rating from Buy to Hold.
BMO Capital Markets cuts price target from $7 to $6 and maintains Market Perform rating.
JPMorgan cuts target price from $19 from $17.
Clarkson cuts price target to $3.50.
Morningstar maintains a Hold rating with a $4 fair value price.

Shares closed up 4.6% on Friday at $7.00. The share price peaked at around $7.80 before U.S. Steel reported earnings, a drop of about 15%. The consensus price target is around $10, but that may change as recent changes are figured in.

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